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Day: March 19, 2019

Last week, Jody Wilson-Raybould released an open letter to her constituents which was very interesting in what it said, both explicitly and implicitly.  There have been many questions to Justin Trudeau as to whether he would allow both Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott to remain in caucus after they expressed a lack of confidence in his leadership over the whole Double-Hyphen Affair and the handling of a potential deferred prosecution agreement for SNC-Lavalin, and Trudeau hasn't given an answer.  He may not until this week's caucus meeting, or he may simply leave the matter alone.  While some caucus members are hostile to the idea that these two remain in the caucus after this expression of a lack of confidence amounts to them not being team players, it has not gone unnoticed that when Trudeau appointed Joyce Murray to Cabinet as the new Treasury Board president was a possible signal that there is room in the Cabinet for disagreements (at least behind closed doors).  Those who have been around the Hill for a while know that Murray has been known to be off-side from the rest of caucus on a number of issues in the past.

The fact that Wilson-Raybould was committing to remaining a Liberal Member of Parliament amidst calls by some former party luminaries like Sheila Copps to kick her and Philpott out did have a bit of an element of a dare to it, particularly after the Vancouver Granville riding association has already come out in support of Wilson-Raybould's remaining the Liberal candidate in the next election.  With Trudeau needing to hold onto as many seats as possible given the damage that this Affair has cost him, alienating another riding or two (if Philpott is also considered), he may not want to risk alienating the riding.  And if, as was the potential signal with Murray's appointment to Cabinet, he is serious that there is room for disagreement and backbench independence, keeping the pair in caucus would be his signal that he is doing politics differently.  After all, it's not like there aren't backbench rebels already thinking in particular of Nathaniel Erskine-Smith and Wayne Long and there was a particular disbelief in the reasoning of Leona Allslev's decision to cross the floor when she cited that she couldn't be outspoken.

But does this dare in and of itself signal a potential future leadership bid?  Not quite, but there were further clues in the letter, which started with the dismissive attitude by which the "challenges" to the rule of law and prosecutorial independence were being described as the way things are.

"This old, cynical view is wrong," Wilson-Raybould wrote.  "We need never resign ourselves to the excuse that 'this is just the way things are done.'  Our country is built on a belief that we can, and must, continually do better.  We will never be perfect, but we must always be striving to strengthen the foundations of diversity, inclusion, equality, and justice.  When we are not doing that, we have truly lost our way."

This, along with other passages about "doing politics differently" in particular, in a less-partisan and more open manner, striving for consensus, and rejecting the "increasing culture of conflict, empty partisanship, and cynical games" sound more like a challenge to Trudeau's style of "doing politics differently," that it has not been nearly enough, and that more change is needed, with the added implication that she and her supporters will be the ones to do it.

Now, we're not going to see a leadership spill anytime soon the party rules don't allow for it, and our bastardized system of leadership selection in this country has ruled out such a means of holding a leader to account internally and the party's constitution cites that a leadership review (or "leadership endorsement") would only be held if Trudeau loses the next election.  This process, just like a leadership contest, is able to be gamed with sufficient "instant Liberals" at the time, especially now that the Liberals have done away with paid memberships and all one needs to do is sign up online as a "supporter" and be done with it.  It's not actual accountability, particularly given how nebulous and ephemeral the membership/supporter base is, but it's the system that the party has signed onto.

Could Wilson-Raybould challenge the leadership without the support of a caucus that thinks that she hasn't been a team player?  Absolutely our system doesn't rely on caucus support.  Thanks to the bastardized leadership selection system in this country, we've seen numerous examples across all parties of leadership candidates who had little to no caucus support who nevertheless won the leadership particularly individuals like Christy Clark, Alison Redford, and even Patrick Brown to an extent.  If Wilson-Raybould is able to mobilize enough supporters, and she just may be able to if she can solidify her new brand identity as a truth-telling martyr (which has obliterated a poor record as justice minister), then there is danger for Trudeau from the party's temporary membership pool, thanks in part to the very rules that he helped institute when he pushed for these changes to the party's constitution but only if he loses the election.

It's still early days, and we still don't know what Wilson-Raybould's endgame is.  With the Commons justice committee looking to end their study of the Double-Hyphen Affair, and Wilson-Raybould's careful silence over matters of why she left Cabinet (insisting she remains bound by solicitor-client privilege and Cabinet confidence when they have been waived on numerous occasions), her ability to maintain her narrative will likely remain intact.  If this is a leadership bid, it is playing out differently than those we've seen in the past, particularly from male would-be challengers who often left in a huff and would leave politics temporarily to set themselves up as an "outsider" so that they could leverage that status for the next leadership race.  There are elements of the same here, but not playing out in the same way, which is why Wilson-Raybould's next steps will be worth watching carefully.

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This time it's personal.

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley called the provincial election on Tuesday, and signalled she will go toe to toe with her foe Jason Kenney on who is fit to be premier.

With Kenney's UCP mired in scandal, Notley used words including 'cheat' and 'lie' in her inaugural campaign speech when discussing the current controversy over the 2017 UCP leadership.

She delivered the election call in Calgary, the UCP stronghold.  And she directly addressed conservative voters.

"A growing number of conservatives here in Calgary and across Alberta are coming to have very serious doubts about Jason Kenney as premier," she said.

Notley's election timing fits neatly with a stream of leaked emails and revelations about the links between Kenney's camp in the leadership race and fellow candidate Jeff Callaway.  It is apparent that there was something beyond routine communication between camps.

The emails obtained by several media outlets indicate strategy and talking points were being fed to Callaway's team from the Kenney camp, apparently in aid of sinking the chances of former Wildrose Leader Brian Jean to take the UCP helm.

The elections commissioner has levied fines over irregular campaign contributions and obstruction of his investigation of the leadership race.  The UCP has severed ties with some former campaign workers as it tries to distance itself, and Kenney, from the fallout.  And the RCMP is looking into possible illegal acts related to the leadership.

Kenney for months denied there was collusion between his camp and Callaway.  Now he argues that communication between candidates is perfectly normal and he was just seeking Callaway's support in case Callaway chose not to stay in the race until the end.

Notley played up the cultural inclusiveness of the NDP at the campaign kickoff, a roundabout allusion to another controversy erupting within the UCP.  Calgary-Mountain View candidate Caylan Ford, who has been a featured star in the UCP candidate cadre, resigned this week after revelations that she had made social media comments which could be interpreted as being sympathetic to white nationalists.

Ford said the remarks were distorted by the story carried by Press Progress, a media project of the Broadbent Institute.  "I strongly denounce extremism, violence, and stand with marginalized communities everywhere,"said Ford.  But the damage had been done, reinforcing a perception that the UCP candidate vetting procedure hasn't been as rigorous as Kenney has claimed.

Notley told reporters at the Calgary event she doesn't believe Kenney is a racist.  "But I do believe the UCP has a problem with racism."

Kenney has stayed the course despite the scandals, soldiering through press conference after press conference on the scandals.

After Monday's Speech from the Throne he calmly outlined the UCP talking points on how the NDP has sunk the Alberta economy.  Even when pretty much every media question centred on the party's woes, he kept his cool, sticking to his defence that he did nothing wrong during the leadership.

He is determined to swing attention to the economy, a losing proposition for the NDP which is presiding over a very slow recovery for the province's oilpatch.  Kenney's first official campaign speech after the writ dropped was staged at an oilfield service company yard in Leduc.  It was heavy on numbers and statistics, veering sharply away from social, justice or leadership issues.

Every Kenney podium is emblazoned with the words Jobs, Economy, Pipelines.  He has hammered those issues home at every appearance, declaring Alberta open for business, promising tax and red tape cuts for companies.

He is characterizing the Notley charges about his fitness to govern as "fear and smear" from the "NDP anger machine."

Kenney is also pointedly loathe to mention Notley by name.  He would argue he is taking the high road by not resorting to personal attacks.  But he is also trying to deflect from the question of who Albertans most trust and admire.

Notley's greatest strength is her own reputation and popularity.  While Kenney may argue she has failed to get a pipeline in the ground, there aren't many Albertans who will argue she hasn't at least made the effort.

The question will be whether integrity of leadership trumps Kenney's promise to fix the economy.  Opinion polls conducted before this past week of UCP meltdown showed Kenney's party with what appeared to be an unbeatable lead.  But there are four weeks until the April 16 vote and polls in Alberta have proven to not always be accurate.

Photo Credit: Edmonton Journal

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.

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Ah, sweet memories, when Ontario was the political and fiscal basket case of Canada, justly derided by the West as the guys who were wrecking it for everybody.  Remember when Kathleen Wynne paraded into Alberta's Ledge to lecture Westerners on the environment and was roundly bashed for doing so?  Remember when Tim Hudak was reduced to pushing the oil sands as a solution to Ontario's economic meltdown?  Seems like a lifetime ago, but it was less than a single election cycle.

And now, with the 30th Alberta general election finally underway, I'm going to savour my chance to play the part of the smug Easterner as the United (*snort*) Conservative Party gets off to the kind of misfire-ridden start that used to be a hallmark of PC Party of Ontario campaigns of ages past.  Allegations of kamikaze campaigns, vote-splitting third party alliances cropping up, resignations of "star" candidates for saying white nationalist things… it's almost like the same gang of chuckleheads that acted as a gift to Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne have transplanted themselves to Alberta and are wrecking things over there.  Oh wait a minute, that bunch HAVE actually transplanted themselves over there.  Never mind.

I mean, at least we had the excuse of having to stand up to halfway competent Liberals here in Central Canada.  And we could certainly buy the argument that the Motley Miracle of 2015 was just that a fluke, the voters punishing the Alberta PCs for being arrogant and out of touch (because, let's be frank, that's exactly what they were).

But if one lesson can be learned from Ontario's decade-and-a-half of darkness, it is this: Stop confusing dissent for disloyalty.  No one ever will learn that lesson, especially when it's coming from an Ontarian and aimed at Albertans, but that doesn't mean I'm going to stop saying it.

Perhaps the worst aspect of living in a country that appears to be revolution-proof is that the longer a party has been around, the lazier they get.  I would argue that the long stretches of incumbency for both the Ontario and Alberta PCs was the thing that kept them in the wilderness for so long.  I don't have to set foot in Alberta to know that before the Jim Prentice-led implosion, the apparatus of the party he led was controlled by a small council of long-time, bought-and-paid-for, do-you-know-who-my-daddy-is hacks who did everything in their power to enforce Unity above all else.  I know because that's the way the pre-Doug Ford PC Party of Ontario operated.  It's probably the way your local provincial affiliate works, too, if you don't live in either of those provinces.

And when both the Alberta and Ontario PCs were finally booted out of office, it took a very long time to set in.  In Ontario. the 2007 campaign was designed on the explicit assumption that the Liberals would be one term wonders.  Big mistake.  Then, it was assumed that John Tory was the problem.  Then, it was assumed that Dalton McGuinty was the problem.  Then, it was assumed that Tim Hudak was the problem.  But as each of these three men were unceremoniously dumped, the usual gang of idiots continued to fight their war behind the scenes while maintaining a public show of togetherness.  The Liberals knew this was a crock, and they took full advantage.

In Alberta, anger over the loss was channeled into a Unite the Right movement, and the quick-and-dirty election of Jason Kenney in Alberta.  But recall the Maxime Bernier-endorsed hostile takeover of the party, and the easily avoidable pictures with the Sons of Odin that suggested that the controls weren't being as manned as carefully as the UCP would have had you believe.  If dissent has to be silenced, if a lead foot has to descend from above, if the party looks like it's playing whack-a-mole, be very afraid.  Because this is an election, in case that wasn't obvious, and there shouldn't be time to be disloyal.

Because if the NDP ends up repeating in April?  Then Ontarians can rest easy as the new Conservative Kings of Canada… until they get lazy and are booted out yet again…

Written by Josh Lieblein

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With its 2019 budget, the Liberal government is doubling down on its strategy to target the middle class, if only with its rhetoric.  They are investing in the middle class, they say.  They want to grow and strengthen the middle class and those working hard to join it, they say.  In fact, Bill Morneau uttered the words middle class 15 times in his budget speech.

Scratching the surface, two key demographics are actually targeted by the Liberals, namely millenials and seniors.  The first group ensured Justin Trudeau's victory in 2015, the second tends to vote more than others.  Securing a large chunks of these groups are key for the Liberal's re-election bid.

The cost of housing is a key concern for millenials, especially those trying to build a family.  Not surprisingly, it is the very first measure to appear in the 2019 budget.  The government is introducing measures to make home ownership more affordable to them.  The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive will reduce the monthly mortgage payments by making the government own up to 10% of your home and rack up the profits once you sell it.  Buyers will also be able to withdraw more from their RRSP to buy a first home.  This is good news for young families, especially in smaller markets, but it won't do much to help access to home ownership in the bigger, hot real estate markets of Montreal, Toronto and especially Vancouver.

Environmentally-friendly measures are also present, which will also please the millenials.  They'll make electric vehicles more affordable by chipping in up to $5000 for those who buy zero-emission vehicles; there will be some investments in hydro power and targeted measures to retrofit buildings.  All good steps, but they won't do much overall to help Canada reach its gas emission reduction targets.

Seniors are no doubt looking forward to lower costs for prescription drugs.  The government is creating a new Canadian Drug Agency that could, maybe, lower drug costs, eventually.  But the government is shying away from putting together a real, universal national pharmacare plan.  They have a plan to have a plan.

Seniors and those about to join them will be hopeful that after years of hard work, the government is taking steps to protect private pensions.  Albeit somewhat timid, these steps will offer a better protection than the current regime allowing the Sears of this world to raid the workers' deferred wages as they go down in flames, while protecting the interest of shareholders and executives first and foremost.

The government is also keeping the door wide open for the opposition parties to reinforce their own narratives.  The NDP will be able to say that the Liberals are not going far and fast enough to make housing affordable, to bring down the cost of drugs and to bring down gas emissions.  The Conservatives will be able to point out that the deficit is still out of control, adding over 91 billion dollars to the debt between now and 2023-2024.

The Liberals are banking on the fact that Canadians do not care about the deficit.  After all, they were elected despite promising $60 billion in deficits.  They were doing just fine in the polls even without meeting their target to balance the books.  Deficits are a good thing, because all these years of deficit spending have improved the economy, and brought Canada to its lowest unemployment rate in almost 40 years.   So let's keep deficiting!

With this budget, the Liberals are going almost all in.  Because since their selling point on the deficit is that the debt-to-GDP ratio is going down, they had to show some restraint.  Because the budget has yet to balance itself, the Liberals can't go all in with social investments, allowing the NDP some room to campaign on bigger, better universal programs and measures.

In the end, this pre-electoral budget is reinforcing the narrative the Liberals have been surfing on since 2015, which has served them fairly well.  There is nothing spectacular that will signal a shift in their strategy.  Nothing really unexpected or surprising.  Which means that, as an attempt to change the channel from the SNC-Lavalin affair, this budget won't do much at all.

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