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Are you there, God? It's me, Josh.

Look, God, I try to give credit where credit is due.  If I make a successful prediction, like Maxime Bernier imploding spectacularly, or Doug Ford winning the Premiership in spite of himself, or the Canadian left catching the next train to Radical Town, leaving Jagmeet Singh and Rachel Notley trailing behind, I don't go around claiming to be, well, You, just because I was the one man who saw it coming.  I don't even claim to have any special insight.  All I do is set up a trendline and collect the data points.

I have to believe You're the one who's running the show, even though I personally am not the most religious person out there.  I have to believe it, because Patrick Brown being stupid and entitled enough to think that he can run for the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party is not the sort of thing that cannot be chalked up to mere chaos.  That level of crazy has to be planned.  Cosmically planned.

And yet, it would be too perfect, wouldn't it?  Patrick Brown looking across the caucus table at Kathleen Wynne, sharing ideas on how to get more women involved in politics.  Patrick Brown in the Legislature, denouncing the PC Party for dragging their feet on sex-ed.  Patrick Brown, giving interviews about how he's running to "protect the centre" or how he was always a Liberal at heart, shaking hands with Justin Trudeau and promising to run campaigns based on "positive politics."  And that's just Patrick Brown.  All the usual Liberal sycophants, having to introduce him as "the next Premier of Ontario" at campaign stops and having to cede one of their 7 ridings to him.  Martin Regg Cohn's columns and Robert Benzie's tweets praising him as the antidote to Doug Ford.  Bill Davis' completely serious endorsement and of course Bill Davis will still be alive in 2022, how dare you suggest otherwise?

Because of course the Liberals would welcome Brown with open arms, in their cultish way, for it would be a validation of one of their core beliefs: that we are all Liberals, whether we choose to admit it or not, and that there is no one so loathsome, no one so depraved and discredited as to be turned away should they bend the knee and accept the Grit yoke.  Come all ye sinners that ye may be washed clean!  (Are you still listening, God?)

Oh, and it gets better.  Those Patrick Brown loyalists?  The ones still filling seats, still holding down riding association positions and sitting on the executive?  The ones pining for the return of the true PROGRESSIVE Conservative party?  What a moral quandary for them, huh?  How many dark nights of the soul will they endure?  Their lips, they say no, but their eyes, they say yes, yes, yes!

And finally, the rest of the PC Party, the ones who don't think that pretending to be Liberals is a viable electoral strategy, and the ones who just really can't stand Patrick Brown, and the diehard partisans who stupidly backed his run for Mayor of Brampton because his opponent Linda Jeffrey was an open Liberal as opposed to a secret one, will be revving up their chainsaws.

The more I think about this, the more it feels a win for literally everyone involved, because literally everyone involved is pretending to be something they're not, and Patrick Brown declaring for the Liberals would be the one thing that would put everything right at once.  The Progressive Conservatives could be Liberals, the Conservatives could stop pretending to care about people, and the Liberals could display that they have no ideology except power.  The NDP get to present their usual non-argument that the Liberals and the Conservatives are exactly the same and be less wrong than usual, and the election itself can be open war between two men who actually hate each other instead of party leaders who are told to pretend that they hate each other because their strategists told them to.

I know everyone says spit in one hand and pray in the other and see which one fills up first, but if God has a sense of humour, he can intervene just this once…

Photo Credit: CBC News

Written by Josh Lieblein

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


The first thing to note about the current SNC-Laval-Wilson-Raybould scandal is that it doesn't yet have a cool, concise nickname.

And it needs one desperately since SNC-Laval-Wilson-Raybould scandal is way too long to write.

Maybe, "Justicegate" or "SNCscam" or "Trudeau's Folly"?

At any rate, the second thing to note about this scandal is how the Trudeau Liberals are trying to limit the political damage.

Of course, by now, I'm sure you're aware of all the damaging sordid details.

According a recent Globe and Mail report, the Prime Minister's Office allegedly interfered in a criminal case against SNC-Lavalin, a Montreal-based engineering and construction company.

More specifically, the Globe story suggests the PMO allegedly tried to influence former justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould to intervene in criminal proceedings against the company, hoping she could convince federal prosecutors to make a deal with the company.

Wilson-Raybould reportedly refused and later (perhaps not coincidently) lost her job as Justice Minister.

So yes, this is by the far the biggest piece of dirty linen to ever fall out of Trudeau's political closet.

Up until now the scandals hitting his government have either been inside baseball stuff government officials charging taxpayers for moving expenses or somewhat trivial a billionaire paying for his jaunt to a Bahamas tropical resort.

By contrast, Justicegate (hey, maybe it'll stick) has bite.

For one thing, what makes it so potentially dangerous for the Liberals, is this particular saga has an easy to follow, soap opera-style narrative.

Indeed, it comes across like a Hollywood script: plucky Minister bravely stands up to corrupt politicians who want her to sidestep justice to help out a soulless, faceless corporation.

My point is, it's the kind of story that, if properly stoked, can get citizens outraged.

So, Trudeau will need to come up with a good communications strategy, i.e. a strategy that won't make things worse.

And yes, politicians often do make bad things worse.

Remember, for instance, how the former Conservative government under Stephen Harper misplayed the Senator Mike Duffy affair?

If you don't remember, here's a reminder: When stories emerged alleging Senator Duffy had inappropriately claimed living expenses, Harper's  Chief of Staff, Nigel Wright, gave him money so he could pay the claimed expenses back.

Needless to say, when this became public the Duffy scandal went ballistic and Wright was forced to resign.

Then there's the case of former Prime Minister Paul Martin.

Recall that Martin assumed the leadership of the Liberal Party at a time when the sponsorship scandal, i.e. "adscam" was percolating.

Martin's response to that scandal, which he blamed on the previous Liberal government, was to go on what the media called a "mad as hell" national tour in which he vocally expressed his own outraged indignation at his own party's alleged misdeeds.

The end result: he reminded Canadians of the scandal on the eve of a national election and, worse, he basically gave them permission to be outraged at the Liberals.

Not a good idea.

Anyway, this brings us back to Trudeau and the brewing Justicegate scandal.

Initially, his performance was less than stellar, or more accurately, it was terrible.

My strong impression is that the Globe story caught both Trudeau and his staff totally off guard, meaning they didn't have a strong prepared response.

Yet for some stupid reason, the Liberals still put Trudeau in front of a pack of reporters to answer questions.

When pressed on the issue, he basically kept repeating over and over again a legally weaselly line that came across as a non-denial, denial.

The end result: Trudeau looked defensive, he looked like he was hiding behind legal semantics, he looked guilty.

After that original encounter, however, the Liberals have since regrouped.

It's an old adage in politics that if you can't attack the message, attack the messenger.

And that's exactly what the Liberals are doing going on the attack.

First off, they're attacking the Globe and Mail for running what they call a "false" story, Trudeau hasn't used the words "fake news", but he can tell he's dying to.

Secondly stories are starting to emerge which paint Wilson-Raybould in less than a flattery way, i.e. anonymous sources are calling her incompetent or not a team player or hard to work with.

Thirdly, the Liberals are basically, saying anyone who criticizes them over helping SNC-Laval must hate Quebec, since that company is one of the province's biggest employers.

Basically then, they're starting to follow the example of former Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chretien.

Unlike Harper or Martin, Chretien understood that voters don't really care all that much about scandals, since, after all, their default position is "all politicians are crooks."

As matter of fact, what voters are primarily looking for in a leader is competence.

So much so, I'd argue they'd rather have a crooked smart guy leading the country than an honest dope.

Hence, when Chretien was faced with a scandal, he didn't overreact; he just basically shrugged it off.

Anyway, this means the fourth line of Liberal attack will be to essentially call Conservative leader Andrew Scheer an incompetent dolt.

True, such an "attack" strategy won't make the Justicegate scandal go away, but it could defuse and dilute voter outrage.

And that's all the Liberals really need.

Photo Credit: Jeff Burney, Loonie Politics

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.