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Calling a provincial election is the prerogative of the premier.  So too is signalling the unofficial beginning of the campaign, long before the date is set.

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley shot the starter's pistol on Oct. 28 at her party's annual convention.

"My name is Rachel Notley, and I am running again to be your premier!" she declared before the adoring crowd of 1,200 party faithfuls in downtown Edmonton.

In about six months, Notley will set the actual date for the vote, which by statute should be held on or before May 31.

The two main parties in the gun fight can both claim the same strength: their leaders.  Notley and UCP Leader Jason Kenney are both smart cookies.  They displayed those smarts the Monday after the NDP convention in the first question period of the fall legislature session.

It wasn't the most sizzling QP.  It was, in fact, a bit of a snooze.  Both leaders are sizing each other up.  There were some light glove taps but no knockouts.

Notley is a fiery speaker, as she proved at the convention.  She has a wicked sense of humour, verging into sarcasm when faced with a worthy opponent.

Kenney is a smart speaker, focused and tenacious, and good at staying on message.

In the legislature he opened with issues he plans to hammer away on throughout the campaign.  What about that carbon tax?  How can the NDP ever balance the budget?  And why did it take the Alberta government so long to oppose the federal Liberals' Bill 69 on changing the regulatory regime for future mega-projects, or as Kenney prefers to call it, the 'pipeline killing' bill?

Albertans can expect to hear variations on those themes over and over, circling around to the big question where's the pipeline?

Kenney wants to concentrate on his vow to kill the carbon tax completely.  He also wants to paint Notley as an ally of Justin Trudeau, the prime minister who just can't give the province the pipeline it needs.

Notley is skilled at parrying the attacks.  Her government has outperformed on its own budget estimates in terms of trying to reduce the red ink.  All things considered, the provincial economy is not that bad (particularly outside of Calgary).  Her ultimate return shot on pipelines hinges on Kenney's own political baggage as a federal cabinet minister with the Harper Conservatives, who also failed to get a pipeline.

While the leaders may be evenly matched, the playing field as a whole feels tilted toward the UCP.  While Notley polls well as a leader, the NDP as a whole is lagging behind.  Spring and summer surveys suggested the UCP will cruise easily to victory.

The UCP too is winning on the financial front.  Donations reported at the end of September: UCP raised almost $2.7 million in the 2017-18 fiscal year, compared to the NDP's $1.86 million.

The UCP is drumming up a fair bit of excitement at its nomination meetings with several being contested by more than two candidates.

But six months out of from the final ballot, the NDP hasn't thrown in the towel and Kenney's continuing effort to prevent vote-killing gaffes shows the UCP also isn't taking victory entirely for granted.

The most recent major eruption damaging the UCP was a leaked letter from the Motor Dealers' Association of Alberta soliciting dealership donations to a UCP-supporting Political Action Committee (PAC) called Shaping Alberta's Future.  The letter listed actions Kenney and the UCP would take to make dealers happy after they win the election.

The controversy triggered a formal complaint to the elections commissioner from the NDP that the UCP is trying to circumvent political donation limits with the PAC.  The UCP says no rules were broken, no promises made in return for money or votes.

But the mud, at least for a while is sticking.  And Notley is happy to capitalize on the general impression left by the controversy.

"Now, Mr. Kenney insists, over and over and over again, that he's not for sale," she told NDP convention delegates. "But it sure does sound like he's willing to work out one heck of a lease!"

It also afforded left-wing wags on Twitter an opportunity to dub the UCP the Used Car Party.

That little dustup also shows a continuing theme that will repeat over the next six weeks.  Sometimes it's the little things the candidates with radical histories, left or right, hiding in their closets; tone-deaf displays of 'entitlement' that turn off down-to-earth voters; surprise leaks of over-sharing memos to supporters that can shape elections in Alberta.

Both Notley and Kenney will have to keep their busy election calendars flexible enough to put out those kinds of fires for the next six months.

Photo Credit: Macleans

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


 

There are many ways to react to the notion of the Conservative Party of Canada targeting "the media" as their opponent in the 2019 election.  You could say that this undermines the cherished principle of a free and independent press.  You could say that this is far too reminiscent of tactics employed by U.S. President Donald Trump, which would be shameful to bring to Canada.  You could say that it might stoke the sort of threats and violence against journalists that have already taken place stateside.

All of the above would be true.  But we needn't be so high-minded.  The fact of the matter is that the Tories, and leader Andrew Scheer in particular, should not go to war with the media because doing so would make them look like complete fools.

Let's review their attempts to "defeat" the media in the past week:

  • In an open letter published in the Toronto Sun  itself a media outlet, however much its opinion writers like to pretend otherwise Scheer promised to stand up to "this government, the media, and the privileged elite" on behalf of "taxpayers and everyday Canadians."
  • Later, he expressed annoyance about the wording of a CTV News headline that opted for "Liberal MPs side with opposition" over "Liberals caved to Conservative pressure."
  • His now-former media relations director, Jacqui Delaney, promised to continue going "for the jugular" if the media continues "thinking they can throw around labels and accusations without challenge."  She has since returned to a previous position in a Conservative senator's office, citing health reasons.
  • After Bloomberg reporter Josh Wingrove tweeted a press release from the Business Council of Canada supporting a carbon tax, Conservative finance critic Pierre Poilievre framed the tweet as a "Liberal reporter marvel[ing]" over rich people failing to care about other people's tax hikes.  Wingrove responded by linking to a piece he wrote that addressed the Tories' concerns regarding the carbon tax.

None of this is as bad as, say, calling the media as a whole an "enemy of the people" or praising a congressional candidate who physically assaulted a reporter.  And Scheer did have the good sense to express his appreciation for the role of the media in a democracy after the criticisms started coming out.  Perhaps he sensed what we all did: that he doesn't wear the role of anti-media antagonist well.

This is one aspect of the Stephen Harper era that Scheer's Tories cannot hope to duplicate successfully.  Throughout his nine years as leader, Harper did little to correct the widely shared image of his personality: sullen and uncommunicative, always wanting to be left alone to read reams of policy documents, except when provoked into partisan anger.  His distaste for the media always seemed genuine.  On smiling, puppy-cuddling,Halloween-missing-regretting Scheer, such distaste would be nothing better than Harper-faced minstrelsy.  Other Tories known for being prickly, like Michelle Rempel, can pull off that fighting spirit more convincingly  but not necessarily more successfully.

On that note, how does one define "victory" in a war with the media?  More favorable headlines?  More apologies for lapses in accuracy, which can and do happen?  More views earned by party-generated propaganda than by a legacy media outlet?  Only the most loyal of rank-and-file Tories would truly appreciate any of the above.  But the endgame is still to win elections, which is much harder to do from a self-defensive posture especially when you're technically the underdog.

We'll have a stronger sense of how much the party will lean on this approach when Scheer names a replacement for Delaney, still listed as his media relations director in the Government of Canada staff directory.  She has never been one to mince words with her party's critics, and she has not denied that she encouraged Scheer's recent anti-media sniping.  The next person in her role may advise Scheer to spend more time connecting directly with voters and leave the air war to others.  This would be good advice: He is in his element on the ground, and past efforts there have served him well.

In the meantime, if he wants, deep down, to don a suit of armor and declare vengeance on his foes, he'll have to wait until next Halloween.

Written by Jess Morgan

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.