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The last thing the Liberals want is for the NDP to take the spotlight or to start drawing votes on the left-centre

Why won't Prime Minister Justin Trudeau call a byelection in Burnaby South?

It's a question some Canadians are still trying to figure out, even though the answer is right in front of them.

Let's take a closer look at this controversy.

The Liberals aren't obligated to call a byelection in the B.C. riding.  Trudeau has 180 days to fill it and Burnaby South has only been vacant since September, when NDP MP Kennedy Stewart stepped down to run in the Vancouver mayoral election (which he won).

At the same time, there are four vacant seats in the House of Commons.  Trudeau only called a byelection for one Ontario riding, Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes.  It's been without a sitting member since Conservative MP Gord Brown unexpectedly passed away in May.

While it's true most of our prime ministers have called previous byelections at roughly the same time, there's no rule in Canadian politics that mandates this practice.  Hence, Trudeau has every right to hold off until March 2019.

But there's a reason why the Liberal government shouldn't be doing this.  Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has announced he'll run for the vacant seat in Burnaby South.

Does this mean the federal Liberals are scared of Singh?

The New Democrats might try to spin this message for a spell, but it's completely false.  CBC's Oct. 21 poll tracker found that only 18 to 20 per cent of respondents have a positive impression of Singh.  Even worse, only seven per cent thought he would be the best choice for prime minister.

Meanwhile, the NDP is sitting at 20 per cent of the popular vote in an Ipsos poll conducted between Oct. 5 and 9.  Under Singh's leadership, the party has been averaging a meagre 15 to 18 per cent since he took the reins in October 2017.

If Singh and the NDP likely aren't going to serve as a political threat for the 2019 federal election, then what's the point of holding off on the byelection?

Strategy, my friends.

The Liberals and NDP traditionally vie for the same centre-left vote.  The former has historically done better than the latter in federal elections, but the latter's 103 seats in the 2011 election means they can no longer be ignored.

The federal government has also dropped significantly in popular support.  The above Ipsos poll showed the Liberals at 36 per cent, and Andrew Scheer and the Tories at 35 per cent. That's extremely close and means every vote could potentially count next year.

Hence, it's politically advantageous for the Liberals to keep the Singh-led NDP out of sight, and out of mind, for as long as possible to shore up the progressive vote once more.  The easiest way to accomplish this is to limit Singh's public exposure.

Since a byelection doesn't have to be held for six months, the Liberals can legitimately keep the NDP leader out of the corridors of power for an extended period.  This means he can't have a seat or ask questions in Parliament, maintain an office on the Hill, hold regular media scrums, have continuous access to the press corps, and see his face plastered on TV virtually every night.

The Liberals will get, and are getting, some flak for their decision, but so what?

They have to work with their colleagues but they don't have to help out their opponents.

While the third-largest party in Ottawa is complaining about this situation NDP MP Peter Julien told Burnaby Now's Kelvin Gawley on Oct. 28, "It's unprecedented and very petty and manipulative" it's no skin off the government's back.

That's why Trudeau and the Liberals are taking their sweet time in calling a byelection in Burnaby South.  Don't be surprised if they wait until the very last possible day, either.

All's fair in love and war … and politics, too.

Photo Credit: Jeff Burney, Loonie Politics

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


If you haven't read best-selling science and technology author Charles C. Mann's new book "The Wizard And The Prophet," I highly recommend it.

Mann walks us through the lives of two two scientists, Norman Borlaug and William Vogt, and their followers.  Broadly, Vogt is the originator of the kind of apocalyptic environmentalism that Trudeau and the Liberals traffic in, preaching catastrophe and genocide unless we cut consumption radically.   Borlaug, on the other hand, was the breeder of a hardy strain of wheat that transformed the agricultural industry of Mexico and Southeast Asia.  When faced with an environmental issue, he innovated his way out of it.

You would probably not be surprised to find that Vogt's people are the ones who are behind the campaign to instill a sense of planetary doom, and demonize GMO "Frankenfoods".  They create podcasts about how we're cooking the planet and how a completely inadequate $50/tonne carbon tax is needed to ward it off.  Yes, in case it wasn't obvious, this is where the Liberals got the idea to greenwash themselves.

I'm not here to evangelize on behalf of Borlaug, whose approach I do admittedly like better.  I just want everyone to know that Mann's book paints a picture of the debate over global warming as it is everywhere else, as opposed to the idiotic Carbon Tax Yay! vs. Carbon Tax Boo! slugfest that we're being set up for in Canada.  I was shocked to find that there are people who are trying to find technological solutions to climate change.  (You mean that EVERYONE isn't having totally pointless fights over carbon taxes??)  Are some of them pretty wild, like making the sun 1% dimmer to stop global warming by increasing the earth's cloud cover?  Of course.

But at least you could root that in a problem-solving approach, and some kind of actual optimism that humanity will be smart enough to mitigate the effects of climate change.  That'd be some real "positive politics."  That'd be something that Andrew Scheer could talk about instead of pointing out how hypocritical Catherine McKenna is for flying around the world while lecturing Canadians about how the Opposition doesn't have a plan for climate change.  He could, but he isn't, because our politics are REEEEEEEALLY STUPID.

You could ask Andrew Scheer who he thinks he's fooling, but we know the answer to that already, don't we?  It's the same reason why he refused to rule out decriminalizing marijuana, only to look even more ridiculous when he clarified that he would keep pot legal if he won.  They've already climbed down from being vociferous anti-pot crusaders to cashing in hugely as soon as there's money to be had.  This was completely predictable.

What's even dumber is that, after the CPC's tails have been kicked again and again on the climate change issue and they will get their tails kicked focusing on innovative solutions to climate change is probably right where they'll end up.  But why would you talk up startups that are investing in new technologies when you could also be branded by the Liberals as being in thrall to the oil lobby, as well as the dairy lobby?  You don't want discourse about actual ways to "do politics differently" when you have a nice tidy group of interests that run things, do you?

(By the way, has anyone but me noticed that Max Bernier and his bros have never, ever, criticized government propping up tar sands?  Weird, huh?)

And really, this isn't about climate change, or who's subsidizing who.  It's about how our politicians assume that the voters can't walk and chew gum at the same time.  Perhaps they are right.  Perhaps it's ignorance on the politicians' part as well as malice too.  Or perhaps the voters wouldn't be able to handle it if politicians showed themselves to be actually informed on the issues instead of reading off pieces of paper in the House.

But this issue shows exactly why we can't have nice things in this country.  This is why we focus on the minutiae of how much money we're going to get back from the carbon tax while the CPC bleats, "They're bribing you with your own money!!!!"

Written by Josh Lieblein

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.