LP_468x60
ontario news watch
on-the-record-468x60-white
and-another-thing-468x60

According to my calendar about 360 shopping days remain until the next Canadian federal election.

That gives all us ample time to engage in pontification, speculation and contemplation as to possible electoral outcomes.

And right now, from my particular perspective, as I cast my gaze towards the future, the most likely outcome is a Liberal victory.

Why do I say that?

Well, since we're living in the age of "click bait", I've come up with what I'm calling the "Top Ten Reasons the Liberals will Win".

Here they are in no particular order:

1. Goodbye Mr. Nice Guy

In the last election, Trudeau campaigned as a passionate, promoter of positive politics, pushing idealism, "sunny wayism" and niceness. But if he's going to win in 2019, the Boy Scout act will have to go; he'll have to be tougher and a little meaner. And already we've seen glimpses that he's ready to do that. As a matter of fact, he recently called the Conservatives a bunch of "ambulance chasers." Ok, that was a terrible line, but it's a start.

2. Media Darling

As we all know, the Canadian media has always adored Trudeau; they adore him because they like his policies; they adore him because they like his style; they adore him because he's the son of another politician they adore. Hence, Trudeau can count on a never-ending stream of relatively positive news coverage. Oh and he can also count on an army of Hollywood celebrities coming to Canada to campaign on his behalf, which, of course, will generate even more positive coverage, since the media also adores celebrities.

3. Flag Wrapping

For the past 50 years or so, the Liberals could always rely on the cynical political tactic of fanning the flames of anti-Americanism, rallying Canadians to their side by whipping up tribalistic, nationalistic emotions, and by portraying themselves as the only party which can protect Canada's sainted sanctity, from the evils of those bible-thumping, gun-owning, culturally-imperialistic-Americans. Watch them to do that again next year with a vengeance. And no matter how untrendy it might be with "globalists", nationalist appeals work.

4. Liberals Bastions

Lots of conservatives were pleased to see a right-leaning party recently win a provincial election in Quebec, because it seemed to portend a possible Conservative breakthrough in the next federal election. But that won't happen. When it comes to federal elections, Quebec voters tend to vote tribally and Trudeau, unlike either the Conservative or NDP leader, is one of their tribe. Also, let's not forget that Atlantic Canada is now basically a vassal state of the Liberal Party. So my point is, the Liberals will have a huge head start even before the election officially gets underway.

5. Weak Opposition

Both Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh seem like nice guys. Unfortunately in politics, as in baseball, nice guys finish last.

6. Liberal Brand

One advantage the Liberal Party possesses over its rivals is that it's "brand" of wishy-washy, trendy, progressive politics is clear cut and obvious. You know what you're getting. The other parties, meanwhile, are offering vaguer visions. We don't really know, for instance, if the Conservative party is populist or libertarian or socially conservative or some mixture of all three.  And is the NDP, pushing a brand of left-wing populism or radical socialism or is it promoting Trudeau-style liberalism? Basically, the Liberals are defined, the other parties aren't.

7. It's the Economy

Forget about climate change, forget about "gender issues", forget about political scandals. At the end of the day what matters most voters is the economy. If voters have the idea the economy is doing well, it's likely they will reward the party in power. And right now, the perception is that, economically-speaking, Canada is doing well. (At least, outside Alberta) And yes, I know economists and business analysts will point to our massive deficits and to lowering investments and say trouble is down the road. But voters typically, don't care about what's down the road. They care about now. (Also watch for the Liberals to water down their carbon tax scheme.)

8. The Power of Incumbency

Just by being the sitting prime minister, Trudeau has an advantage. As prime minister he sets the agenda, forcing his opponents to react to his moves. He also has his hands on various levers of power, meaning he can dole out spending goodies and tax cuts to sought after demographic groups. What's more he has massive name recognition, much more so than Andrew what's his name.

9. We Still Like Him

Of course, we've seen incumbents fall by the wayside recently, most notably Kathleen Wynne and Philippe Couillard, but in both cases, voters were simply fed up with those leaders; they were past their due dates. In Trudeau's case, he just hasn't been around long enough to wear out his welcome.

10. Enemies Are Good

Trudeau is now surrounded by enemies: In Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick (and soon likely Alberta) he faces Conservatives; in British Columbia he faces a renegade socialist/green coalition. But having enemies in politics is good. In Trudeau's case, he can cast himself as a moderate standing up to hordes of extremists.

So that's my list.

Mind you, things can change a lot over the course of a year and if the Liberals end up losing the next election, you can expect me to up with "My Top Ten Reasons Why a Liberal Loss was Inevitable".

That's the beauty of punditry.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.