When the Cabinet shuffle talk started, my reflex was to dismiss it as the usual summer speculation that happens every year, like clockwork.  With an election just over a year away, there is now a narrative expectation that there needs to be an "election-ready" Cabinet to put in the window for voters who've largely ignored the past three years, though given media cycles, it's not like the ministry matters, as all focus will be on the leaders (much to the detriment of the system).  Nevertheless, The Canadian Press' sources say that a shuffle is coming, likely next week.

What the added fodder for this cycle of shuffle speculation has is that the government recently passed a bill that, while technically housekeeping, does "allow" for Cabinet to be expanded by an added four positions.  By this, the bill allowed for posts that were generally junior positions relegated to being either Ministers of State or Secretaries of State (and yes, there is a difference in terms of precedence and authority in Canadian law) to be full ministers with line departments where before the junior positions were parts of larger ministries.  Part of the reason here is equality among the Cabinet where gender-parity may have relegated several of the women to positions that were really Ministers of State, and that would have been a black eye to Trudeau's feminist agenda.  The differences were papered over with Orders in Council, but fixed in legislation with a bill that had been on the Order Paper since 2016 and finally passed this June, but I'm not sure that Trudeau will necessarily fill the "positions" for the sake of filling them, but there may be a couple of new faces given some of the challenges with Cabinet as it is comprised at present.

Of course, the moment the possibility of a bigger Cabinet is discussed, you get some of the usual voices grumbling that it's already too large, and the UK has twice as big of a House of Commons with just 21 ministers, so why should we have thirty?  (Harper was up to 39 by the end of his time in government, by comparison.)  Of course, that ignores the fact that there are a tonne of junior ministers in the UK that aren't listed among the 21 legislated line departments, and it requires the additional context that since they're a unitary government that don't have the same federal/provincial delineations that Canada has around things like education and health (though some of this is handled with devolution of some authorities to Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales), it means there isn't the same apples-to-apples comparisons that one could attempt.

This having been said, it's unlikely that Trudeau will undo his policy decision of bundling all of the regional development agencies under Innovation, Science and Economic Development.  Harper's policy was to assign separate Ministers of State to each development agency, which was as much about political patronage and having "regional ministers" than it was about good policy, and it's been one of the Conservatives' ongoing criticisms of the current government, railing that the minister for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency is from Brampton.  Of course, those same agencies, with their regional ministers, became hotbeds of nepotism and rigged hiring processes, and there has been some grudging acknowledgment that Trudeau's decision to centralize them has made these agencies work better than they did under the previous system.  With that in mind, I don't think Trudeau is going to split them back up again for the sake of creating more regional ministers.

What expansion we will likely see to Cabinet are to split out some areas where Cabinet ministers are currently doing double duty the obvious examples are Kirsty Duncan holding both the Science and the Sports and Disabilities portfolios, and Bardish Chagger holding both Government House Leader and Small Business and Tourism one job requiring her to be in Ottawa when the Commons is sitting, the other requiring her to be on the road as often as possible, which makes for very difficult scheduling.  Another portfolio which has become overly large and should be broken up is Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness.  With Ralph Goodale in charge of the RCMP, CSIS, CBSA, CSE, Correctional Services, and to be responsible for dealing with natural disasters on top of that, it's ripe to have that burden shared a little more.  It may be worth exploring the notion of restoring the old position of Solicitor General, and hiving off Emergency Preparedness and any of the leftovers to a separate portfolio and ministry that's more manageable, especially given how many big files that Goodale is carrying.

As for who's in and who's out, I don't claim to have the powers of prognostication, but I will say that Patty Hajdu has proven to be somewhat unpopular in caucus since taking over the labour portfolio, and is often seen as arrogant and dismissive, and her handling of the Canada Summer Jobs Grants attestation issue may be her undoing.  She may find herself the MaryAnn Mihychuk of this shuffle.  There are also concerns expressed about Diane Lebouthillier's performance at National Revenue (witness the disability tax credits issue), and there are also questions as to whether Lawrence MacAulay will be put out to pasture and another PEI MP put into Cabinet in his stead.

As for who else may be considered for a Cabinet post?  I would suspect that Trudeau is going to look to bolster his Quebec flank, so Joël Lightbound may be called up, as Finance parliamentary secretaries seem to have a good record for promotion.  But there has also been pressure in the caucus for someone from the Italian community to be in Cabinet, while Trudeau's commitment to diversity may mean newer faces like Mary Ng or Celina Caesar-Chavannes may be tapped.  I wouldn't expect a major shuffle of the big names, but that said, I have a terrible record for trying to make predictions.  It will nevertheless be interesting to see what signals Trudeau may send by any shuffle that does happen.

Photo Credit: Global News