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In our household, as presumably in yours, we dump the tea leaves into the compost.  Arguably pundits should do the same more often and more quickly instead of staring mesmerized at them.  Yet I cannot resist gazing into my cup at a recent story that the untested CAQ holds a sizeable lead over its experienced mainstream rivals four months before the Quebec election.

If you are a normal person, and far be it from me to suggest my beloved readers have an eccentrically intense interest in politics, you would not necessarily know Quebec was about to have an election let alone what the CAQ was.  But as a Loonie Politics subscriber you not only know these things, you realize this Quebec election seems less urgent than its recent predecessors because the reasonably-free-market CAQ that rose from the ashes of Mario Dumont's Action démocratique du Québec is leading the boringly safe Liberals with the Parti Québécois a distant third.

So, no alarm bell in the night, no fresh referendum looming, no agonizing over why they don't love us when we lavish them with gifts.  Or at least no same old alarm.

I called the PQ "experienced" and "mainstream", which is odd for a party dedicated to demolishing what they refuse to regard as their country.  But it has been a fixture in Quebec politics since René Lévesque founded it in 1968, holding power from 1976-85 and 1994-03.  And though it fell to third behind the ADQ in 2007, it rebounded to win a minority in 2012 before collapsing in 2014.  Then it picked Pierre Karl Péladeau as its leader.

Well, we all make mistakes.  But following his departure the party has been disintegrating in ways that are partly self-inflicted but, with its federal Bloc Quebecois counterpart in a similar death spiral, are also clearly connected with voters losing faith in this option.

Phew.  Fine.  No more separation silliness.  The rest of us can hit the snooze button, right?

I'm not so sure.  Partly there is militant disenchantment with a party whose raison d'être was separation but couldn't pull it off and got sidetracked into boring mundane governance.  But I suspect many less hard-core Quebecers decided that a party that couldn't make socialism work without leaving Canada would have been even less able to do so after leaving and foregoing lavish transfer payments many sovereigntists knew or suspected were flowing from Ottawa to Quebec City.

Again, phew, right?  Put power back in the hands of less radical people.  Namely Philippe Couillard's Liberals who have actually delivered balanced budgets, indeed surpluses (unless you count capital borrowing).  Yes, folks, Quebec is now the envy of Alberta on fiscal rectitude.  Pigs have taken wing.

But if that's the case, why on Earth aren't the Liberals way ahead in the polls?  It's not just a budgetary performance that is spectacular by Canada's appallingly low standards.  The Liberals seem to have governed competently, avoided scandals and hewed to the middle of the road on contentious issues.

Again, these tea leaves may lack flavour or goodness.  Come voting day a large plurality of Quebec voters may say ha ha we had our fun now you Liberals go take care of business.  But Quebecers seem dissatisfied with both mainstream options and, one therefore concludes, with business as usual in politics.  (Couillard won in 2014 by promising to focus on "healthcare, education and jobs" and timid moderation on social issues which, like it or hate it, is absolutely standard Canadian politics whatever distinctiveness Quebec may possess or stridently claim.)

If Quebecers can't stomach this insipid beverage they are not alone.  Alberta turned to the NDP.  Americans to Donald Trump.  Britons voted to leave the EU.  Ontario elected Doug Ford.  Quebecers tried the NDP federally.  It's not a move to the left or the right.  It's a move to the door.  Voters are thrashing.  Yet governments burble on, to quote recent posts on federal matters from my former colleague David Akin, about "Toward a Real Commitment to the Vitality of Official Language Minority Communities" and "Broadband Connectivity in Rural Canada: Overcoming the Digital Divide" and "Modernizing Federal Procurement for Small and Medium Enterprises, Women-Owned and Indigenous Businesses".  Reading this rubbish I thought, yet again, these people live in a bubble where Canadian governments are doing a great job to the applause of gratefully compliant citizens.

Maybe they are and Couillard will cruise to reelection on Oct. 1.  But I doubt it.  People may not know what is wrong, or how to fix it, and far too few want what I want.  But a large number seem profoundly dissatisfied with government as usual.  And if the political class can't or won't recognize and address this dissatisfaction, voters will back outsiders.

Hence this time the CAQ seems to be their cup of tea. 

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


The true character of a government comes out when it finds itself backed into a corner.  When it's presented with two bad options, what does it do?  Does it do the easy thing, or the hard thing?

Right now, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finds himself faced with just such dilemma: On the one hand, the United States is caging children after tearing them away from their parents as they cross that country's southern border.  On the other hand, Canadian trade relations with the Americans are in a precarious place, with the opening salvoes of a trade war arcing across the border.

Which brings us, quite naturally, to Charles de Gaulle.

In 1931 de Gaulle was not yet de Gaulle.  He had not come to the rescue of his nation.  He had yet to stir the hearts of the masses with the cry of "Vive la France."  He had not even become mon Général, for he was still just a major.  A major in the French Army who'd just spent the bulk of the First World War in, and escaping from, a series of German prisoner of war camps.

But in that year, 1931, de Gaulle published a military memoir.  And within that book, Le Fil de l'épée (The Edge of the Sword), there is a passage the sort of which you can glimpse his fate as if in the distance, hazy on the horizon:

"Wishes and hopes turn towards the leader as iron towards the magnet.  When the crisis comes, it is he who is followed, it is he who raises the burden with his own arms, though they may break in doing so, and carries it on his shoulders though they may crack under it.  The ordinary run of events is not favourable to him, with regard to his superiors.  He is confident of his judgement and aware of his strength, and he never sacrifices anything to the desire to please. […] But as soon as matters grow serious and the danger urgent, as soon as the general safety requires immediate initiative, a taste for risk, and firmness, the whole viewpoint changes and justice comes into its own.  A kind of tidal wave sweeps the man of character to the forefront."*

I bring this all up, an extensive quote from one of those almost absurd giants of the previous century, because a wave of this sort approaches us now.

The United States, as a matter of policy, has been separating children from the parents of migrants crossing into the country as a means of deterring other migrants.  The logic, as expressed by the country's attorney general, was that by tearing families apart and tossing the children in tent encampments in the desert, it would deter others from making the journey.  Malevolence was to be the rule of the day.

As opposition grew louder in the U.S. as more stories of horror and heartbreak emerged, the crisis arrived here.  What would Canada do?  On Wednesday, the prime minister took a few small steps, put a few small sacks of that moral burden upon his shoulders.  He called the U.S. policy of family separation wrong.

"What is happening in the United States is unacceptable.  I cannot imagine what these families are going through.  Obviously this is not the way we do things in Canada," Trudeau said to reporters.  When asked later if perhaps Canadians should boycott American good, Trudeau demurred, saying Canadians could make the choices they wanted to.

(And while this was top of mind for most people, it should be noted Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, the head of the opposition, spent the last question period before September grilling Trudeau over…the cost of a swing set at the prime minister's lake house.  I think it's clear where the tides of history might sweep this cheery lad.)

Traditionally, Trudeau's Liberals have tried very hard to walk a fine line.  Risk avoidance is the rule, almost without exception.  Any firmness in direction will be softened with consultation.  Carbon taxes will be balanced with pipelines.  Legal marijuana will be counterbalanced by broader police powers.  The country will welcome refugees, but will discourage them from crossing from the U.S.

Canada's record of separating children from their parents, specifically separating indigenous children from their parents, is a foul stain upon our nation.  But that should not prevent our government from speaking out, from acting to right other wrongs.

If we are to be firm, there are two things we can to do.  First, we can stop the indefinite detention of migrants here in Canada.  Holding people for unbounded lengths of time is ghastly and immoral and it needs to be stopped at once.  Last year more than 150 children were held alongside their parents in immigration detention centres, this too needs to end.

And while this country rights its wrongs — for there is no need to have your own house in order to criticize another — we can suspend the safe third country agreement with the U.S., and give refugees in that country the chance to cross into this country at a regular border checkpoint.  Forcing refugees to cross through fields and ditches, then arresting them is no way to treat people fleeing for safety.  It would also bring us truly closer to the rhetorical ideal of welcoming refugees.

It would be a risk, it would court American ire.  It may very well throw our trade relationship with the United States into jeopardy for as long as Trump sits in the Oval Office.

But it would be right.

If risk and firmness are what will bring justice, as de Gaulle says, what choice do we have?  What will waffling bring?

The defining characteristic of this government has been to walk a fine line whenever and wherever possible.  When the time comes, the tidal wave bearing down upon us will bring Trudeau to the fore, or it will sweep him out to sea with all the rest.  There is no middle way.

***

* As quoted from the first volume of Jean Lacouture's sprawling biography of Charles de Gaulle, The Rebel, as translated by Patrick O'Brian.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


 

At least former Conservative Party leadership candidate Maxime Bernier finally remembered which culture war he's supposed to fight.  While the rest of the House of Commons voted unanimously last week for a motion affirming support for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in his fight to save NAFTA, Bernier left the chamber, unable to support a passage in favour of Canada's agricultural supply management system.  Combined with the reappearance on his personal website of a chapter of his still-shelved bookDoing Politics Differently, in which he explains his opposition to this system, he was all but daring party leader Andrew Scheer to punish him for his insubordination.  That Scheer did, stripping Bernier of his position as the party's economic development critic and, later, booting him from the industry committee.

Yet Bernier remains a loyal Tory.  He has assured his supporters that he will "continue to fight for" his small-government beliefs "in whatever position [he] find[s] [him]self."  Apparently this is as good a position to him as any; he's still speaking to partisan campus clubs and staying on top of byelections.  To have joined Scheer's front bench at all was somewhat questionable, given their insurmountable disagreement on a matter that has rapidly increased in political importance.  To remain on the back bench now looks like masochism.

Bernier could lead a rebellion if he wished.  His supporters made that clear after he sent out an e-mail fundraising off the loss of his portfolio.  Within two days, he had received $45,000, nearly half his remaining campaign debt.  Plus he has an open invitation from Libertarian Party leader Tim Moen to replace him; they've already adopted his leadership platform word-for-word.  Though his political judgment leaves something to be desired, Bernier is the only credible standard-bearer the libertarians have.  A rejection of him is therefore viewed as a rejection of them.

Scheer has done little else to keep this wing of the party onside, with reminder after reminder after reminder that he loves supply management, currently the quickest litmus test for a Canadian politician's friendliness to libertarianism.  Scheer's opposition to carbon pricing and his support for improved border security may be enough of a difference between parties for most Conservative voters, but not for the libertarians, who don't appreciate being shunned in favour of rent-seekers.  He might feel differently if their opinions translated into regional impact, as they did in the days of the Reform Party.  A few extra dairy-rich seats in Quebec are worth more to the Tories than a few nationally dispersed disgruntled Bernier supporters.  (Let's be real here, though; the party's best chance of gaining serious, sustained momentum in Quebec would be to nominate only local junior hockey heroes.)

That may be the reason Bernier isn't fully capitalizing on his supporters' discontent: the cautionary tale that is the Reform Party.  As independent-minded as he is in many areas, he is still the product of an environment in which uniting the right has made all the difference.  A smaller party may be content as a kingmaker, willing to join the Tories in a scale-tipping coalition government if their demands are met.  But such a coalition wouldn't satisfy many Tories, if the lack of support for Bernier from other members of caucus is any indication.

With all this in mind, Scheer may believe he will suffer no consequences from booting Bernier beyond a few critical op-eds.  If he gave them the right incentive, the libertarians could be his best friends: When properly motivated, they are prodigious donors and indefatigable volunteers.  But the dairy farmers could make up at least some of the shortfall.  Besides, where else will the libertarians go?

That's their question to answer now.  If Bernier won't properly lead the charge for fiscal conservatism, individual freedom, and an end to rent-seeking, someone else will have to do it.  Moen will happily step aside as Libertarian Party leader for someone who captures more hearts and minds than he ever has.  Bernier's supporters crave the chance to exact revenge on Scheer for his indifference.  The conditions are in place.  Who will take advantage?

Photo Credit: LaPresse

Written by Jess Morgan

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Over the past few weeks, you may have heard the Conservatives decrying a $7 billion "slush fund" that the Liberals apparently created for themselves in the budget.  You may have wondered what the childish meltdown that occurred in the House of Commons a few weeks ago with NDP MP Daniel Blaikie shouting at the Speaker after one of his points of order was shot down, which the Conservatives joined in to turn into an attempted filibuster.  Now that the Estimates have passed the Commons and have reached the Senate, it may be worth taking a moment to step back and look at just what happened.

First things first.  The Estimates process are at the heart of what Parliament is all about the government requests funds to operate from Parliament, because that's who controls the purse strings.  The Estimates are how those requests for funds come before the Commons, and they are divided up into the Main Estimates, which are usually tabled at the beginning of the fiscal year, and at various points later in the year, Supplementary Estimates are tabled to ask for more program funds, and to refine the asks that were made in the Main Estimates.  Over the decades as the Estimates and the budget cycle drifted apart, in part because the budget is a political document and there are politics played around when it is revealed, which created a disconnect between what was in the Main Estimates and in the budget document, and the government would start to reconcile those with the Supplementary Estimates in the fall.

But more than just the disconnect between the budget and the Estimates, there also grew to be a disconnect between the Estimates and the Public Accounts, which are published at the end of the fiscal year to show how the money was spent.  Part of the problem was that they diverged in terms of the accounting systems used between them, and it became nigh impossible to reconcile the Estimates and the Public Accounts as a result.  Once upon a time, MPs could look to see that what spending was announced in the Estimates got spent in the Public Accounts, and that allowed them to do their due diligence.  Well, those days have long passed, and with the creation of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, MPs have pretty much fobbed all of that work onto him to scrutinize the Estimates on their behalf, much like the Auditor General deals with seeing how the Public Accounts reflected good spending practices.

As if this disconnect wasn't enough, rules crept into our Parliamentary system that ensured that if the committees charged with studying the Estimates didn't report back by a certain date, that those Estimates were deemed to be adopted anyway.  This was to ensure that they didn't hold them hostage, but it eliminated the kinds of proper leverage that MPs have over the government in exercising control over the public purse.  All of this is to say that our whole Estimates cycle in Parliament is horribly, horribly broken.

When they were elected in 2015, the current Liberal government had promised reform of those Estimates in order to get them back to some semblance of normalcy.  Doing this with a reluctant (and indeed sclerotic) civil service is difficult, but this year, the Liberal government did manage to get a better alignment in terms of timing, so that the budget came out before the Main Estimates and allowed the Main Estimates to better reflect what was in the budget.  But it's a work in progress, and because the Treasury Board process is still slow to get many of the approvals in place before the Estimates were tabled, the government decided to do a bit of a work-around this year.  Because they knew they couldn't get everything through in time, they created a $7 billion fund to get a head start on spending announced in the budget, while allowing those programs to still go through the Treasury Board process.  All of the spending was outlined in the budget annex as to how it would be spent, but it was an unusual loophole in the Estimates process.  And this is where the trouble began.

Former Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page weighed in that this kind of fund was not accountable to Parliament, but the government countered that it was, because all of the spending was laid out in the budget spending that $7 billion on other things would be tantamount to unauthorized spending.  The Conservatives immediately pounced, calling this $7 billion a "slush fund" that the government could spend on whatever it wanted, and if one needed proof that they knew what they were talking about, one could point to the border infrastructure fund that the Conservatives put into place for the G8 and G20 meetings in 2010, which famously got spent on gazebos in Tony Clement's riding.

For the NDP's Daniel Blaikie, he considered this an undermining of Parliament's oversight and scrutiny of spending, but along the way, he made a number of erroneous comparisons, like saying that the lesson from the Auditor General on the Phoenix fiasco was without proper oversight there is spending and waste.  (I would argue the actual lesson with Phoenix was that civil servants were too afraid to tell the government of the day that the budget was inadequate to the scope of the project, so they cut functionality to meet the budget to the point where it no longer functioned).  Other Conservatives claimed that there would be no accountability for the $7 billion because nobody would see how it is spent (again, not true because it will come out in the Public Accounts).

And this is where the public meltdown happened.  Blaikie tried every procedural tactic he could in order to delete this fund from the Estimates, and he failed in the House, he failed at committee because his delays triggered the "deemed" rule, and Thursday night's vote-a-thon was related to the Estimates, so those inevitably all passed.  The government did make a couple of changes to the language in the spending bill to clarify that the spending had to follow the budget annex, but now we'll see if any senators object.

If anything comes out of this whole affair, one hopes that it will be a spur to the government to carry on with their Estimates reform so that they won't have to engage in this drama again, but that may be easier said than done.  I do think that most of the concerns were overblown, not because I don't think the Estimates are important quite the opposite but rather because the status quo of having wildly inaccurate Main Estimates that didn't follow the budget is so horribly broken that this imperfect solution of the government's, with its budget annex table, was a vast improvement, even as imperfect and procedurally inappropriate as it was.  If anything, the government should be put on notice that they had better get things in shape for next year's budget and Main Estimates, or else this will count against them as yet another broken promise.

Photo Credit: Vancouver Sun

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Nobody in the Saguenay-Lac St-Jean region of Quebec was really surprised by the Conservative win in the Chicoutimi-Le Fjord by-election on Monday.  I was visiting the region just a month ago and most people I talked to, may they be media-type, political-type or any-other-type, agreed that Richard Martel was the favorite to win, despite a near 20 year drought.

Between 2003 and 2011, Martel was the head coach of the Chicoutimi Saguenéens, the most important sport franchise in the region.  He was named the Q's coach of the year twice, and is the the winningest coach in the history of the QMJHL.  A native of Chicoutimi, Martel was a fixture on the front page of Le Quotidien and is quite a character.

In theory, the 4 main parties could have prevailed in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.  The last 3 elections saw wins by the Bloc, then the NDP, then the Liberal Party.  In 2015, Denis Lemieux defeated NDP MP Dany Morin by exactly 600 votes, while the Conservatives finished 4th.

This explains why all party leaders were campaigning in Chicoutimi last weekend.

But the truth is that it was a two-way race between the Conservatives and the Liberals all along.  As the Bloc is recovering from its Martine Ouellet hangover, it was in no shape to compete even in a seat they have won four times, in a region known as the cradle of the Bloc.  The BQ ran a 25-year-old who had been living in Montreal for some time and was twice a candidate for the radical Option nationale.

For the NDP, this crushing defeat is harder to swallow.  The party was runner-up last time around.  They hold the seat next door.  They have a new leader.  But it is clearly not working.  New Democrats are nervous.  MPs are being wooed by other parties.  Some are thinking about retiring rather than losing.  The Leader's office summoned the Quebec caucus to an emergency meeting Monday night, to manage and massage everything as smoothly as they could.  Still, the sound you hear is knives being sharpened.

Some could easily dismiss the by-election win as a Richard Martel win, and they wouldn't be wrong.  At the launch of a popular local bike race, voters were flocking towards Martel for selfies, while Scheer was in a supporting role.  Meanwhile, voters were also flocking towards Trudeau, while Liberal candidate Lina Boivin was awkwardly standing by.  It was Martel vs Trudeau, and Martel won.

But then again, it is the Conservatives that were able to attract him, thanks partly to a charm offensive that Andrew Scheer launched in the last few months, going after soft-nationalist and disillusioned separatist voters.  The message is resonating to a certain extent.  The Tories are up in the polls in Quebec, yesterday's win will motivate the troops and allow the party to recruit other star candidates showcasing Martel's victory as bait.

After having lost the next-door riding of Lac-St-Jean to the Liberals 8 months ago, a riding Denis Lebel had won numerous times for the Conservatives, yesterday's win was payback time.  For the very first time since 2015, Trudeau's Liberals have to add a loss to their seat count.  There is a crack in the shiny armour, which should have all the opposition parties rejoicing.

But only the Conservatives are actually happy.

Photo Credit: TVA Sports


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In a world where charisma seemingly dominates the political landscape, Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer stands out like a beacon of bland.

And that's probably not a good thing.

After all, as history tells us, when it comes to choosing leaders, voters tend to prefer charisma to blandness.

Now, before I go on with my thesis, let me first define "charisma", by saying it's a little bit like pornography; you know it when you see it.

For instance, when you look at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, you see charisma by the boatload: he's telegenic, he's endearing, and he personifies a bubbly, idealistic enthusiasm, the essence of which he manages to capture in a never-ending stream of adorable photo ops.

It's no wonder he makes the media swoon.

And when you look at NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, you see a youngish, good-looking, charming politician who is sitting on a vast (as of yet untapped) reservoir of potential charisma.

If Singh can ever get his act together, he could, I think, give even Trudeau a run for his money in the all-important magnetism department.

Meanwhile, south of the border, U.S. President Donald Trump, with his flag-waving, bombastic, tough-guy, bravado, is oozing with charisma, populist-style — an unabashed "alpha male" kind of charisma.

Then there's Scheer.

Scheer, of course, is a nice guy, but let's face it, he is to politics what a still life fruit bowl painting is to art; OK to look at, but not terribly exciting.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that not only is Scheer uncharismatic, he's actually anti-charismatic.

In other words, Scheer and his strategists have decided to promote his dullness as if it was some kind of political virtue, basically embracing as their unofficial motto: "A leader this boring must be good!"

Although in Scheer's defence, boringiness and Canadian conservative politics usually go together like, government subsidies and Bombardier.

As a matter of fact, to find a federal Canadian conservative leader who was even remotely charismatic, you'd probably have to go all the way back to the early 1980s, when Brian Mulroney, blessed as he was with Irish charm, was ruling the Progressive Conservative Party roost.

Later on, Canadian Alliance leader Stockwell Day tried to pass himself off as an exciting conservative leader, but unfortunately his charisma tragically smothered to death in a tight-fitting wetsuit.

Of course, it should also be stressed that dull conservatives can win federal elections.

Stephen Harper's electoral success is proof of that.

Yet, dull conservatives usually only prevail when facing equally dull opponents.

For example, in 2006, Harper bested Paul Martin, whose charismatic sheen had worn away with age; in 2008 Harper beat Stephane Dion, a man who bored Canadians in both official languages; in 2011 he vanquished academic Michael Ignatieff, a man whose idea of a fun conversation was discussing the trade policies of the Byzantine Empire.

But when in 2015, Harper's aura of dull competence was pitted against Trudeau's Sunny Ways euphoria, it was the biggest mismatch since the last time the Washington Generals took on the Harlem Globetrotters.

And Trudeau is the guy Scheer will face in 2019.

Plus, let's not forget that Scheer now also faces a charismatic rival from within his own ranks.

I'm talking about Maxime Bernier, a rogue conservative who was recently kicked out of Scheer's "Shadow cabinet".

Some say Bernier was expelled for not being a "team player" others say it was because of Bernier's principled opposition to supply management.

Either way, Bernier is now a martyr, and in politics martyrs can be sexy and sexiness leads to charisma.

So essentially Scheer is now surrounded by charisma, to the left, to the right and to the south.

Will he stand out as a refreshing change, or will he simply pale by comparison?

The Conservatives are betting on the former, but my money is on the latter. 

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


You know, I keep hearing Trump is a moron, and there's plenty of evidence to support that contention, but when it comes to pushing people's buttons, the man is an absolute genius.

First of all, he understands Canada far better than any American I've seen.  He knows our weaknesses, including our need to be noticed and validated on the world stage, and how our reach when it comes to fighting bullies and righting wrongs far exceeds our grasp.

And he has our image-conscious Prime Minister pegged, too.  The President's earlier statements to the effect that Trudeau was doing "a wonderful job" was exactly the sort of thing Trudeau wanted to hear, as it played into the image he was cultivating as the "Trump whisperer."  It now seems like Trump was only willing to be gentle with Justin until the Canadian leader stepped out of line.  The speed with which he did it suggests that Trump was waiting for the perfect moment to yank the rug out from under the unsuspecting PM.

Now the PM and Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland stand agog, utterly missing the method in this madness.  Had they actually paid attention to what Trump's advisors are saying instead of focusing entirely on the distracting bluster, they would have realized that this tariff gambit is a game of poker.

Economic counsellor Larry Kudlow, who threatened the Prime Minister, is actually a fan of free trade.  But he also knows the President likes tariffs.  So, he came up with a compromise: Have Trump threaten us meek and mild Canadians with tariffs so that we'll relent on our own nonsensical policy of supply management for dairy.  The stress of this contradiction may have contributed to Kudlow's unfortunate heart attack, but the chaotic strategy put Trump in his element.

Trump also knows that Trudeau only has one card in his hand slapping tariffs of his own on Canadian exports.  But he knows that even that is a risky bet for Trudeau, and he's banking on the Prime Minister putting discretion before valour and passing up the chance to be hated by the Americans who will be hurt by the Canadian retaliatory action.

This is a Prime Minister who thinks he is still in the boxing ring, and that the aim of the game is to conserve your energy and land a knockout punch when your opponent drops his guard.  That's what I believe he was trying to do by presenting Trump with a picture of the hotel/brothel his grandfather established in the Yukon, and by trying to get Trump to attend a seminar on gender and women's empowerment.  Calculated strikes and head fakes, with the intent of putting Trump on his back foot.  That's the Canadian way.

Unfortunately the delicate Canadian style won't work on a madman who plays as though he has nothing to lose.  Trump views the trade deficit as something to be overcome.  It's deeply personal for him, and as we've seen he's willing to sacrifice political capital for.  He's willing to go all in, betting aggressively and seizing on Trudeau's runaway eyebrow (a trick of the light, but a revealing tell nonetheless) as a sign of weakness.

And Trudeau, who has never sat around a boardroom table, and has largely avoided butting heads with the provinces, has never shown that he can hold his own against a truly dominant opponent who doesn't play by the rules.  The PM's moves may set Maxime Bernier and Andrew Scheer at each other's throats again, and cause Doug Ford and Jason Kenney to put country over…..principle?….and stand shoulder to shoulder with the federal government on guard for Canada, but they are not going to strike fear in Trump's heart and make him back down.

Trudeau may have gotten his shining moment of standing up for Canada, but after a few heated hands of an actual trade war with the US he may wish he'd come to the G7 with a few more Trump cards up his sleeve.

Written by Josh Lieblein

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Andrew Scheer's decision to oust onetime leadership rival Maxime Bernier from the Conservative Party's shadow cabinet this week has caused no end of consternation and plaintive wails about free speech and the independence of MPs.  There also seems to be a great deal of concern and indeed confusion as to whether a shadow cabinet should have the same expectation of solidarity as the actual Cabinet.

To recap for those of you who missed the drama, Maxime Bernier was ousted from his role as the Conservative critic for science, innovation and economic development ostensibly because he "broke his word" to caucus that he wouldn't publish his book on his political vision after he uploaded the chapter on Supply Management and his supposition that "fake conservatives" won the leadership for Scheer to his website, after said chapter had already been floated to news outlets and was printed in the Globe and Mail.  The actual reasons are likely more political in that the Conservatives are facing a lot of heat to support the Supply Management system in the face of threats from the Trumpocalypse, and the fact that every time they would demand the government support the system in Question Period, the retort would always be that the Liberals support it more than the Conservatives do because noted opponent Bernier was on their front bench.  With a byelection in Quebec coming up this Monday, Scheer apparently felt that this was becoming too much of a distraction, so out went Bernier.

It's also about Bernier's political judgment, which people need to start seeing as far poorer than they keep giving him credit for.  Bernier has become the repository for the hopes and dreams of the libertarian set but hasn't really demonstrated the talent to pull off what he espouses, and his continued floating of his own vision in contrast to Scheer's was very much seen as undermining Scheer in public, something his other leadership rivals have not yet done.  Witness Michael Chong's stoic silence about carbon taxes which he supports, as any reasonable free-market conservative would in the face of Scheer and company performatively melting down about them every single day in Question Period.  Chong has more or less stated that he knows he'll be right in the long term, but while he waits for his opportunity to say that he told them so, he's toeing the line (as moronic as that line might be).

But should opposition MPs be able to publicly espouse separate views from their leader?  That's always an open question, where we lack some fairly clear lines in the Canadian parliament.  In an ideal parliament, we would expect MPs to be elected as individuals, and to each bring some ideas to the table.  Yes, they support party platforms, which has the two-fold exercise of both establishing the coalition of MPs who can ensure that a government that their party forms can maintain confidence, but it also has the ability to pool talents and policy strengths better than any one candidate could on their own.  Of course, we've seen this ethos being worn away as the focus increasingly turns to party leaders, to the point where it's the leader and not the party that decides on the platform and the policies, and the leader whose will must be obeyed.  The more focus we put on the leader, to the point where every political party is hollowing itself out to become the cult of personality for that leader and where complete devotion and supplication is required, the more we realize just how far we have strayed from how a Westminster system should operate.

Of course, if we well and truly wanted independent MPs, that would require us to have a lot more of them probably doubling the size of the House of Commons and make us more akin to the size of the UK's parliament while returning to the system where caucus selects and removes leaders, and a leader has no ability to sign off on an MP's nomination papers.  This means removing the "democratic legitimacy" that we've imparted on the leaders, that they use to push their MPs around, but also amass power away from the grassroots.  And having a strong grassroots is part of having strong MPs, because that's who should be both selecting the MPs through nominations, and putting forward the party's policies that the platform is built around.  And with more MPs in the chamber, who have the backing of their constituencies, that creates the insulation for them to be more independent from the party line when need be, because they know that even if they run afoul of the leader that their constituents will return them.  We don't have that right now.

As for the expectation of shadow cabinet solidarity, we need an actual shadow cabinet system in practice rather than in name.  When he was made leader, Scheer started using the nomenclature of "shadow ministers" rather than critics but didn't change the substance of what it meant.  If we were more akin to the UK system, shadow ministers would be the backbone of a government in waiting something that is harder to do in Canada because our Cabinets are constructed with regional, gender, and ethnic representation considerations.  It's far harder to put that into a shadow cabinet from the opposition benches.  As well, the UK shadow cabinet is institutionally stronger its MPs get regular department briefings, have scheduled department visits, and don't sit on committees to keep the committees independent.  None of those apply in Canada.  And because they act as a government-in-waiting in ways that Canadian MPs simply have not (and probably can't, given their smaller numbers), it creates a sense where they have a system that creates the expectation of Cabinet solidarity between them.  But in Canada, where we have opposition parties doling out critic portfolios and deputy critic portfolios for every micro-interest under the sun in order to make everyone feel included, it makes it hard to have a cohesive shadow cabinet group.  That makes it hard to demand solidarity akin to a Cabinet, and instead reinforces the appearance of the cult of the party leader.  We have a lot of work to do to restore our parliament to functioning the way it should be, and this Bernier incident reinforces that.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


 

So . . . what did we learn from the clusterdumpstertrainshow that was last week's G7 summit in Charlevoix, Quebec?  Well, we learned that lichen makes a tasty side dish.  We also learned that U.S. President Donald Trump's doctrine can be summed up as follows.  And we learned that, for the present, Canada's political discourse has changed in three important ways:

Supply management opponents will face the exact same arguments as before, only with a new magic word.

For years, Canadians who have questioned the wisdom of artificially controlling the national supply of dairy, eggs, and poultry products have had to explain why a) they wish to cripple Canada's apparently uncompetitive farms by allowing more American-made products over our border, and b) they wish to put Canadians' health at risk by allowing growth hormone-filled American milk over our border.  (This fear is complete bunkum.  I have been drinking American milk for the past six months and have only grown one extra ear.)  Accordingly, these same opponents have been forced to bear witness to every party in the House of Commons assuring agricultural lobby groups that this system will remain untouched.  Although the commentariat is mostly lined up against supply management, they have yet to successfully reframe the matter around the interests of Canadian consumers, who face unreasonably high food costs and lower food quality and variety while surplus milk goes into sewers.

Now, with Trump attacking this system, there has been a "patriotic boost" to the farm lobby's already seemingly impregnable political influence.  Supply management opponents will be, and already have been, accused of siding with Trump and against Canada.  With his usual disregard for the consequences, Trump has achieved his greatest desire in life: to have his name stamped on everything.

Tories may hesitate before attacking Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's negotiation tactics.

Just last week, Conservative MP Erin O'Toole, writing in the National Post, expected us to believe that Trudeau made no attempt to identify "areas of mutual interest" and was inordinately focused on the socially progressive elements of his agenda.  This week, the House of Commons unanimously passed a motion condemning Trump for his attacks against Trudeau and supporting retaliatory tariffs.  The Tories have shifted their own attacks against Trudeau back to ones they had made already: taxestaxestaxestaxestaxes, and border security.  Also, not implementing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on schedule, although they had tabled a bill ratifying the text of the agreement in May, and most of its other signatories have been operating on similar schedules.

The G7 debacle was a necessary wake-up call for the rest of Parliament.  As long as Trump is president, whomever becomes prime minister after next October's federal election may have to be at the negotiating table with someone who neither understands nor cares about generations of diplomatic tradition, thus rendering the old rules inapplicable.  If the Tories are just as unwilling to make the concessions that Trudeau has rejected, they will have to make it clear what they would do differently to ensure that Trump has no cause for overreaction.

Canada will have to forge closer relationships with allies other than the U.S.

Obviously, trade will be a major component of this, hence the pressure to implement TPP.  In place already is the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the member states of European Union (EU).  As we speak, Canada also has its eye on South America, negotiating an agreement with the Mercosur trade bloc and looking to upgrade its membership in the Pacific Alliance.  Negotiations with India have dragged on for years, but Canada is not without major trading partners in Asia, having concluded talks with South Korea in 2014.  And with 44 countries in Africa becoming party to their own free trade agreement in March, Canada has a new corner of the world economy to explore.

So Canada has plenty of export markets at its disposal; if only its private sector were so eager to take advantage of them.  But as I wrote in a previous column, Canada has little ability to influence geopolitics except as a partner of a more powerful nation, which has typically been the U.S.  As a pillar of global liberal democracy, Canada may have to turn more frequently to Germany and France, the world's two largest, strongest pillars, for leadership in the event of an international crisis.

Written by Jess Morgan

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.