At least former Conservative Party leadership candidate Maxime Bernier finally remembered which culture war he's supposed to fight.  While the rest of the House of Commons voted unanimously last week for a motion affirming support for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in his fight to save NAFTA, Bernier left the chamber, unable to support a passage in favour of Canada's agricultural supply management system.  Combined with the reappearance on his personal website of a chapter of his still-shelved book, Doing Politics Differently, in which he explains his opposition to this system, he was all but daring party leader Andrew Scheer to punish him for his insubordination.  That Scheer did, stripping Bernier of his position as the party's economic development critic and, later, booting him from the industry committee.

Yet Bernier remains a loyal Tory.  He has assured his supporters that he will "continue to fight for" his small-government beliefs "in whatever position [he] find[s] [him]self."  Apparently this is as good a position to him as any; he's still speaking to partisan campus clubs and staying on top of byelections.  To have joined Scheer's front bench at all was somewhat questionable, given their insurmountable disagreement on a matter that has rapidly increased in political importance.  To remain on the back bench now looks like masochism.

Bernier could lead a rebellion if he wished.  His supporters made that clear after he sent out an e-mail fundraising off the loss of his portfolio.  Within two days, he had received $45,000, nearly half his remaining campaign debt.  Plus he has an open invitation from Libertarian Party leader Tim Moen to replace him; they've already adopted his leadership platform word-for-word.  Though his political judgment leaves something to be desired, Bernier is the only credible standard-bearer the libertarians have.  A rejection of him is therefore viewed as a rejection of them.

Scheer has done little else to keep this wing of the party onside, with reminder after reminder after reminder that he loves supply management, currently the quickest litmus test for a Canadian politician's friendliness to libertarianism.  Scheer's opposition to carbon pricing and his support for improved border security may be enough of a difference between parties for most Conservative voters, but not for the libertarians, who don't appreciate being shunned in favour of rent-seekers.  He might feel differently if their opinions translated into regional impact, as they did in the days of the Reform Party.  A few extra dairy-rich seats in Quebec are worth more to the Tories than a few nationally dispersed disgruntled Bernier supporters.  (Let's be real here, though; the party's best chance of gaining serious, sustained momentum in Quebec would be to nominate only local junior hockey heroes.)

That may be the reason Bernier isn't fully capitalizing on his supporters' discontent: the cautionary tale that is the Reform Party.  As independent-minded as he is in many areas, he is still the product of an environment in which uniting the right has made all the difference.  A smaller party may be content as a kingmaker, willing to join the Tories in a scale-tipping coalition government if their demands are met.  But such a coalition wouldn't satisfy many Tories, if the lack of support for Bernier from other members of caucus is any indication.

With all this in mind, Scheer may believe he will suffer no consequences from booting Bernier beyond a few critical op-eds.  If he gave them the right incentive, the libertarians could be his best friends: When properly motivated, they are prodigious donors and indefatigable volunteers.  But the dairy farmers could make up at least some of the shortfall.  Besides, where else will the libertarians go?

That's their question to answer now.  If Bernier won't properly lead the charge for fiscal conservatism, individual freedom, and an end to rent-seeking, someone else will have to do it.  Moen will happily step aside as Libertarian Party leader for someone who captures more hearts and minds than he ever has.  Bernier's supporters crave the chance to exact revenge on Scheer for his indifference.  The conditions are in place.  Who will take advantage?

Photo Credit: LaPresse

Written by Jess Morgan