After weeks of wall-to-wall polling and of endless debates over "Hitler memes" and of countless news items about "Buck a Beer," the Ontario election is heading (mercifully?) into its last days.
And make no mistake, from a strategic point of view that final stretch will be a crucial time for all the political parties.
That's because it's during these last few days that the vast majority of undecided voters (whose votes often determine the outcome of a race) start paying attention to politics, a topic they usually avoid at all costs.
This is why political campaigns will wait until they're nearly at the finish line to inundate the market with their best of arguments, their most persuasive of ads and their ugliest of smears.
So, just for fun, let's speculate as to what strategies the political party "war rooms" are preparing for this important endgame:
The Progressive Conservatives
The PCs and their leader, Doug Ford, started the race flying high in the polls, which, unfortunately for them, meant they had no place to go but down. And down they've gone or so say the polls. This has created the media narrative that the PCs are losing that most precious of all political commodities — momentum. That's a storyline the PCs need to change because voters want to be on a "moving train". So how can the PCs change the narrative? Well, they might push the idea that Ford is leading the charge of an exciting new movement and that to support Ford is to be part of something historic. Ford's status as an "outsider" and his populist branding could help him to pull this off.
The New Democratic Party
Unlike the PCs the New Democrats entered the race lower down the ladder, which meant they had no place to go but up. And up they're going, which makes the NDP look like a "moving train." So everybody wants to jump on board. Yet, it's possible the NDP peaked too early. There's still plenty of time for Ontario voters (who tend to be risk averse) to have second thoughts about voting into power a socialist party. Hence, the challenge for the NDP is keep their train moving until Election Day. One way to do that is to engage in what I call a "switcher" message. That's to say the NDP should start running ads showing people taking down their Liberal or PC lawn signs and switching them with an NDP sign. And these ads should have regular middle class, non-socialist appearing Ontarians, saying things like, "I was going to vote for Doug Ford, but now I realize Andrea Horwath is the way of the future." This would help the NDP keep the perception of momentum alive.
The Liberals
If one thing about this race seems certain, it's that the Ontario Liberal Party is on a Death March. So what can the Liberals do at this point? Well, good political strategists never wave a white flag and the Liberals have lots of good political strategists. And they actually have at least one straw they can grasp, i.e. it's possible legions of "Shy Liberals" are out there, people who support Premier Kathleen Wynne but who don't like to admit it publically, even to pollsters. If these "Shy Liberals" exist in any large numbers and if they come out to vote on Election Day (admittedly those are two big "ifs") the Liberals could surprise. This is why the Liberals will keep reminding people of all the good things they've done. It's also possible they could pull off a "Hail Mary Pass" strategy and do something a little off the wall. After all, they've got nothing to lose.
At any rate, my point is, Ontarians need to brace themselves for a bombardment of carefully crafted political propaganda over the next few days.
And for any Ontarian bothered by that, here's some solace: It'll all be over soon.
Photo Credit: Jeff Burney, Loonie Politics
