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I have this nagging feeling Canadian politics is heading for what might be called a "Great Populist Pivot".

And by "populist pivot", I mean one day soon the same "mainstream" establishment voices in Canada, which currently denigrate and denounce populism, might eventually embrace and applaud it.

Or at least, they might embrace and applaud the spirit of populism, if not the name.

To understand why this might happen, you have to keep in mind that for all its alleged failings and faults, populism has one thing working in its favour: it's an emotion that's easy for politicians to exploit for electoral gain.

In other words, as a political weapon populism works.

Indeed, it's for this reason that Canadian politicians are already playing the populist card and spoiler alert their numbers include prominent "progressive" Liberals.

Of course, these prominent progressive Liberals don't call what they're promoting "populism", in fact, in some cases they actually claim to be fighting it.

For instance, federal Liberal Foreign Affairs minister, Chrystia Freeland, says Canada has adopted a policy she calls "progressive internationalism", the avowed purpose of which is to battle the bastard offspring of populism: nationalism and protectionism.

And yes, "progressive internationalism" certainly sounds anti-populist.

But if you understand what Freeland's policy means in practice, at least when it comes to international trade, then it's actually easy to view it as a subtle form of protectionism.

After all, the Liberal government's official stance on international trade is that if other countries want to deal with us, they first need to set in place labor, environmental and regulatory standards that mirror our own.

So that's not really "free" trade is it?

Indeed, when Liberal officials announced Canada was finally signing up for the Pacific Rim Trade deal, they crowed about how they managed to amend the agreement to safeguard certain domestic interests.

As International Trade Minister François-Philippe Champagne put it, "We have worked to get agreements with our partners, notably on the cultural sector … to protect, defend and promote our culture across Canada."

"Protect", "defend", aren't those protectionist-sounding terms?  And isn't Champagne making a nationalistic-sounding appeal?

Please note too, when it comes to domestic policies, the federal Liberals seem even more willing to engage in populist-style rhetoric.

Recall, for instance, how they tried to justify their tax reform package the one that was allegedly going to close "loopholes" by adopting "class war" rhetoric, i.e. "We're going to stick it to the wealthy."

That's populism of the left.

And speaking of left-wing populism, let's consider the recent record of Ontario's Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne.

While defending her plan to raise the minimum wage, she certainly used old-fashioned, left-wing, socialist, tax the rich oratory.

I mean, her positioning on this issue was basically, "I'm standing up for the poor downtrodden working class people and against Ontario's greedy, profit-obsessed, corporate overlords."

If that's not populism, I don't what is?

What's more Wynne is even expressing some concern about Trudeau's Pacific Trade deal.

Saying she's heard concerns from many in the automotive sector, the Ontario Premier pledged to make sure "we are achieving the best possible deal for Ontario."

Does that mean she is putting "Ontario First?"

Of course, both Wynne and Trudeau are focussing on economic populism, but there's also a strong cultural variety of populism that's gaining strength around the world.

Basically, cultural populism sometimes called "nativism" — is driven by fears that waves of immigrants are threatening our way of life.

And Liberal politicians in Quebec, seeing this fear, are seeking to appease it.

Indeed Quebec Liberal Premier Philippe Couillard, who is facing a provincial election soon, recently introduced Bill 62, a law banning people from wearing face coverings while giving or receiving public services.

So yeah, populism seems to be becoming more acceptable in progressive liberal circles, which I would contend is setting the groundwork for that potential "Great Populist Pivot" I mentioned earlier.

But that pivot probably won't take place unless something truly cataclysmic occurs, such as the NAFTA negotiations with the USA going off the rails.

If that happens, if NAFTA dies, I wouldn't be surprised to see Prime Minister Trudeau suddenly become explicitly and proudly protectionist and nationalistic.

What I mean is, we can expect him to start saying something along the lines of, "Well, now that NAFTA is gone, Canada is free to protect our progressive economy from the evil influence of American capitalist imperialism."

Keep in mind, this was basically the Liberal Party stance in the 1970s and 1980s.

At any rate, my point is if the Liberals go back to being the party of economic nationalism, we can expect their allies in the mainstream media will fall in line.

Consequently, populism (or least the Liberal brand of populism) will be trendy with all the elites.

As Canada's left wing progressives might eventually put it, "We have met the populists and they are us."

Photo Credit: Toronto Star

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Before early last evening, when Brown was apparently first contacted by CTV journalists for comment and confronted with the sexual misconduct allegations made against him — allegations similar in nature to swirling rumours for years — the then-Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario Leader still thought he was the heir-apparent for the premiership of Ontario.  Within a few short hours it was all over; blood is now in the water and the sharks are circling.

One would-be shark, PC Deputy Leader Sylvia Jones, a spokesperson for the PCs' noon press conference today, was bashful about confirming or denying if she was considering a bid for the leadership.  Her description, at the press conference, of the nuclear disaster from last night as a "hiccup" should've been a disqualifier from the start, but regardless of her serious hiccup, she never really stood a shot.

The smart money, if you listen to the rumours circulating Queen's Park and PC operatives, is on seasoned politician and MPP for Nipissing Victor Fedeli, who's shown charisma throughout his political career, including his mayorship of North Bay.  Also of vital importance, he's a member of caucus and held in high-esteem within the party.

Don't entertain the thought for too long that these power brokers within caucus will allow a new face, no matter how politically appealing, to take over the party instead of one of them.  Although Caroline Mulroney could be the fresh start the party so desperately needs at this critical juncture of four months out from the election, leaderless only a few months from the writ dropping, the PCs are not known to take risks (e.g. Patrick Brown) and any party's top players are not known to willingly hand over and entrust power to others.  Instead, expect the charismatic Mulroney to be right by Fedeli's (or whomever the eventual new leader is) side throughout the next four months, playing a vital role in Ontario PC Party's rehabilitation efforts.

No, even if it were possible, power-jockeying wise, for former PM Brian Mulroney's daughter, who has the potential to be a Progressive Conservative star and as popular as her father once was (before his own precipitous fall), the rise would be too premature as it was when people first thought Justin Trudeau should run for leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada back when Ignatieff took over.

In the likelihood Fedeli is the next interim leader of the Ontario PCs, the next question becomes will he only be interim leader.  Many political observers have quickly realized that this scenario would most likely be unpalatable to voters.  Ontarians will want to know that the person they're electing to become premier remains in that office until the next provincial election.

Expect the PCs to bend or rewrite the constitution in order to keep the crown on whomever they end up announcing as the next PC leader tomorrow.  This will be an incredibly hard to sell to party members at large.  The notion of holding a rushed leadership race four months before the election is unthinkable.  The cost of a civil war, which most party leadership races essentially are, to the party's reputation and coffers is far too great to be in the realm of possibilities.

But after last night, who can really say what will happen next?

Written by Graeme C. Gordon

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Justin Trudeau has experienced the worst fall of his political career.  Since last summer, his government has been on the defensive.

His finance minister, Bill Morneau, has been mired in multiple controversies, which has derailed the Liberal government's tax reform promotion, announced with great fanfare this summer.  In the House, Morneau has proved weak in defending his integrity.  The blood in the water attracted the opposition's sharks as Morneau was fined for non-disclosure of a villa in France, failed to put his assets in a blind trust, and was accused of insider trading.  Even if he was cleared by the ethics commissioner on this last point, Canadians have heard repeatedly that Morneau pocketed $ 10 million in a suspicious transaction and was fined for disclosing his ownership of a French villa.   Not too good for the chief defender of the middle class!

Morneau's weakness led Trudeau to speak in his place during a news conference announcing the modifications to the tax reform announced two months earlier.  Not ideal!

Melanie Joly is another minister who has been in the spotlight for the wrong reasons.  After the Canada Day fiasco in Ottawa and the failed attempt to nominate Madeleine Meilleur as Commissioner of Official Languages, Joly then dropped the Netflix ball completely.  Joly also found herself in hot water with her $5.6 million parliamentary rink, which was supposed to be open for only three weeks!  A famous liberal strategist has even dubbed her the worst minister in history.  Ouch.

Then there was Minister of Revenue Diane Lebouthillier, who spent the fall defending the many tax blunders and decisions of her officials; the offensive remarks of Minister Kent Hehr to the thalidomide survivors; the ongoing disaster of the Phoenix payroll system; the difficult negotiations on NAFTA and the flip-flop on the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement; and the gray clouds looming over the horizon on the Canadian economy as interest rates are on the rise.

And what about Justin Trudeau?  He became the first Prime Minister to violate four articles of the Conflict of Interest Act for his 2017 holiday vacation on the private island of the rich Muslim religious leader, the Aga Khan, a trip that cost some $215,000 to taxpayers.

So what?

Six by-elections were held this fall.  Trudeau's Liberals not only kept all their seats, they took two away from the Conservatives while the NDP tumbled in the popular vote.  The opinion polls remain good for the Liberal Party, sitting, around 40% on average during the fall, while the Conservative Party is around 30% and the NDP is struggling to reach the 20% mark.  Roughly speaking, we have the same general picture as it was on 2015 Election Day (with regional variations).

Still, there is a perceptible trend: between November 2015 and December 2016, the polls' monthly average, as compiled by the CBC's Éric Grenier, was between 44 and 49% for the PLC.  In February 2017, this monthly average fell below 40% for the first time since the election.  It has oscillated between 37 and 42% since then.

If the opposition tried hard to make hay of all of the Liberals' problems, the truth is the harvest was very slim for both the Conservatives and the New Democrats.  Even if we start to see some chinks in the Prime Minister's shiny armour, the fact remains that the arrival of Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet Singh did not really shake Trudeau's position: neither benefited from any honeymoon with Canadian voters.

For the moment, if an election was held tomorrow morning, Justin Trudeau would lead his troops to a second majority government.  If he is able to right his ship, the opposition parties might have lost their best opportunity to damage the Trudeau brand.

Photo Credit: CBC News

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.