LP_468x60
ontario news watch
on-the-record-468x60-white
and-another-thing-468x60

For those who are blissfully unaware, one of this country's least-noticed, but most consistently cringe-inducing holiday traditions is the year-end column of Don Martin, in which CTV's purported political know-it-all flaunts his flamboyant incompetence as a soothsayer of headlines-yet-to-come.  His December, 2016 column of predictions for 2017 was as howlingly wrong as every previous one, and included such notable non-events as:

  • Maxime Bernier wins the Tory leadership, followed by Kellie Leitch, Lisa Raitt, and Kevin O'Leary in second, third, and fourth place, respectively.  Notably absent from his tally?  Andrew Scheer, the actual winner.
  • Charlie Angus wins the NDP leadership on the "third ballot" beating Jagmeet Singh — who in the real world, won on the first.
  • Donald Trump visits Canada and Russia.  He visited neither.
  • Canada sends 600 troops to Mali.  Canada in fact explicitly rejected this idea, with the Trudeau government instead vaguely pledging 200 troops to what the Toronto Star called "any number of global hot spots over the next five years."

Martin did get a few things right.  He accurately foresaw that Stephane Dion — remember him? — would not survive 2017 as Canada's foreign minister.  Dion left the job in early January to become ambassador to Germany.

Martin also accurately foresaw that Democratic Institutions minister Maryam Monsef would be "laterally transferred to a less contentious portfolio" — though given what she went through in 2016, who didn't see that one coming?  Don's prediction this would trigger a "cabinet shuffle" chain reaction was way off, however.

Don was also correct in the relatively safe prediction that outgoing party leaders Rona Ambrose and Thomas Mulcair would retire from politics once their successors were elected.  Less so was his expectation that old Tory warhorses Ed Fast, Diane Finley and Rob Nicholson would follow suit.

I'd give him partial credit on his claim that the Prime Minister would get off scott-free from the ethics commissioner.  She did wind up dropping her investigation into Trudeau's alleged "cash for access" shenanigans back in April, and his government did introduce (though not yet pass) new fundraising reforms, but ongoing fallout from the whole Aga Khan thing, in which the PM was found to be in much more than a mere "perceived" conflict of interest, proved 2017 was, at best, a mixed bag for Trudeau on the ethics front.

This time last year, I theorized that the best way to accurately predict the future would be to make guesses in the most extreme opposite direction of whatever Mr. Martin saw coming.  In fairness to Don, this proved a bit of an overreaction.  While predicting the inverse of his predictions was an effective way to call a few events, such as that President Trump wouldn't visit Canada and Maxime Bernier wouldn't become Tory leader, in other situations my rank contrarianism caused me to run too far in the other direction.  Situations Don didn't see as being at all likely, such as Kevin O'Leary winning the Conservative leadership, or Thomas Mulcair cancelling his retirement plans, didn't wind up happening either, indicating that perhaps good fortune telling requires a more moderate approach.

Lesson learned, I give you my predictions for Canadian politics in 2018, informed by assuming things Don Martin predicts will happen this year won't, but neither will some particularly dramatic alternative.  Chances are, 2018 will be a fairly monotonous year of predictable events unfolding predictably.  Conventional wisdom and caution rules the day.

  • 2018 will be a year of stagnant trade talks.  NAFTA negotiations will not progress, and neither will talks with Asia.  Business leaders will get frustrated at how little is happening.
  • Bill Morneau will eventually resign as finance minister, but it will be handled in an inconspicuous way so it won't seem like a reaction to any particular headline.
  • Jagmeet Singh will continue to refuse calls to run for a seat in the House of Commons.  He will grow ever more ignored by the press, who begin pushing a narrative that his weak leadership is making the NDP increasingly irrelevant.
  • Pot legalization will fail to meet its summer of 2018 implementation deadline, as the rollout plan continues to be mired in logistical concerns and provincial worries.
  • The BC-to-Alberta Trans Mountain pipeline twinning project gets no closer to completion.  Lawsuits, environmental activism, and Liberal anxiety keep it in frustrating limbo, while industry-types gripe about how difficult it is to move forward with a natural resource project in Canada these days.
  • PC leader Patrick Brown is elected premier of Ontario with a majority government.  Liberal premier Phillippe Couillard is easily re-elected in next-door Quebec.
  • Many of the promises of his last throne speech still unfulfilled, Justin Trudeau elects not to prorogue parliament early, and instead plans to keep the current House sitting until the 2019 election.

Boring?  Perhaps.  It would be endlessly more entertaining if, say, a troubled third-place party staged a surprise upset to sieze control of our second biggest province (something Don expects), but experience suggests these things don't tend to happen here.

I'm trying to think of the most interesting or shocking thing that happened in Canadian politics in 2017.  Kevin O'Leary dropping out of the Conservative leadership contest, maybe?  The coalition government drama in British Columbia?  It's all pretty weak tea.

As much as those of us who make a living talking about this sort of stuff may wish otherwise, no one ever lost money betting against the fundamental dullness of Canadian politics.

Photo Credit: CTV News

Written by J.J. McCullough

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


A couple of weeks ago, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was asked whether he still had his "admiration" for China, and Trudeau said that over the past couple of years with looking at different systems around the world as part of his government's aborted exercise in electoral reform, that he had come back to the Mother of All Parliaments, Westminster.

On the one hand, that's great news that maybe he's given up on the foolhardy crusade of electoral reform, and that he recognizes that our present system has more to recommend it than not, and that hopefully we can move forward with trying to meaningfully engage with the system as it exists rather than trying to bring in a bunch of reforms for the sake of reforms.  But then again, perhaps not.  Trudeau's response as to why he was so enamoured with the present system in Westminster shows that he's still keen on reforms:

Obviously, the U.K. does a significantly better job than us in programming legislation and getting that through the House.  I think there is issue to admire on that.  On the other hand, we were glad to adopt the prime minister's question period model from the U.K. I think there's lots to draw on when you look at our democratic structures from the mother of all parliaments.

You may recall that Trudeau and his House Leader, Bardish Chagger, got into some hot water early in the year when they introduced that "discussion paper" on proposed changes to help "modernize" our own Parliament.  Embedded in that proposal was a proposal around programming motions, which they touted as a way to give greater predictability to House proceedings, and more certainty to committees to plan and undertake studies.  Eventually, the weeks of filibusters forced the government to back down on the issue, but as you can see, Trudeau remains enamoured with the concept, which makes me wonder if this isn't something he's going to try and bring in again (though potentially in a slightly less ham-handed manner than he tried the last time).

As with so many things, we can't just graft on UK procedures into our own Parliament, despite their common roots, because the nuances don't add up.  Case in point is the attempt by Trudeau to create our own version of Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesdays.  While the government went ahead and made this policy despite withdrawing their discussion paper that included it with the somewhat sulky reminder that these changes won't be put into the Standing Orders so that future governments won't be bound to them, as though it were actually possible to bind future governments (which they can't) it didn't really go as planned.

When you watch PMQs in the UK House of Commons, it's a lively exchange with spontaneity and wit but more than that, there isn't the same kind of reliance on canned answers and pabulum talking points that we see here.  Why?  Because questions are submitted in advance, so that the team in Whitehall can come up with sufficient answers to brief the PM with before her once-a-week appearance.  That doesn't happen in Canada at all in fact, there would likely be another revolt and weeks more of filibusters if Trudeau dared to suggest that in order to give more complete answers for Wednesday QP, that he would prefer questions be submitted beforehand.

After all, the suggestion that he wanted PMQs in the Standing Orders was seen as a way of giving himself the ability to only show up one day a week.  And while that may have been a bit overblown, it didn't really improve the quality of the exercise.  Trudeau does, on the whole, still show up three days a week when he's not doing international travel, meaning that with these new Wednesday PMQs, he's now answering far more questions than his predecessors did in the course of a week.  The problem is that the vast majority of these answers are vague platitudes, because that's as much as he can be briefed on when it comes to some of the topics that backbenchers will throw at him.  Add to that, the opposition has made it a regular tactic to bombard him with questions that they know he can't or won't answer (sometimes for legitimate reasons, like being asked by the Ethics Commissioner not to discuss any conversations they had), and we instead get a PMQ that is dull and repetitive.  It didn't translate in the slightest.

And that's one reason why programming can't work here at least, not until we have a wholesale reformation of our debate culture in the House of Commons.  Programming works in the UK to a large extent because they have a single afternoon of Second Reading debate and move the bill onto committee (which are far more independent than they are in Canada), and they have stricter timelines because of yearly prorogations and need to clear the Order Paper before that rolls around.  Their debate rules keep interventions short, and comprised of actual debate instead of reading twenty-minute speeches at one another for days on end, especially with our insistence on interminable Second Reading debate, which continues to baffle anyone who understands how debate is supposed to function.

The other, more salient problem with this fascination with programming is that it fundamentally treats the House of Commons like a legislative sausage-maker rather than a body that is designed to hold the government to account.  Trudeau and Chagger may be frustrated that the process to pass bills is slow particularly in this parliament but it's not Parliament's job to simply churn out legislation, and I fear that there is this expectation that is what's being articulated in Trudeau's admiration of programming motions.  And with so many attempts to "modernize" rules in the Canadian parliament, they're not solutions to problems, but layering more problems onto existing ones, which just make things worse in the long run.  We need to get back to debate basics, but that's not what Trudeau or Chagger are looking to offer.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


So Prime Minister Justin Trudeau violated the Conflict of Interest Act, the first prime minister ever found to have violated federal conflict of interest rules.  Does it matter?  Will it stick?  It does.  And it should.  But it won't.  So it doesn't.  Yet.

Yes, by agreeing to stay on the Aga Khan's very posh and private island last winter, Justin Trudeau showed a clear lack of judgement.  He jeopardized his brand as the middle class defender.

It took almost a year for Conflict of Interest and Ethics Commissioner Mary Dawson to conduct her investigation and come to a decision on the matter.  In the end, Dawson concluded that Mr. Trudeau had broken the law in many, many ways.

Trudeau defended his trip to the Aga Khan's Island, saying that the law allows for a gift from a friend.  Dawson dismissed that argument.  The Aga Khan was close to Trudeau's father but he and the son had no personal contact for 30 years, except at the father's funeral.  Their relationship only resumed after Justin Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party and it intensified after his election as head of the government.  Did Justin Trudeau think that was pure coincidence?  How many other friends ignored him for 30 years only to reconnect once he became powerful and, therefore, potentially useful?

Sadly for the opposition parties, the news broke after the House had risen for the Holidays.  Dawson's report was released so late in 2017, in fact, that Prime Minister Trudeau's year-end interviews were already in the can.  Meaning that nobody, journalists or opposition MPs alike, could grill the Prime Minister on the findings the way they should have.

That is a good thing for Trudeau.  In fairness to the Prime Minister, he did decide to appear in front of a media mob to answer questions on the very day he was found guilty by the Ethics Commissioner.  Trudeau's feeble defense was tested, and he was knocked out by the CBC's Rosemary Barton.  If you haven't seen the video, take a look: ding, ding, ding: down for the count.

It's as if Trudeau suddenly realized how terrible his four prepared lines, repeated ad nauseam since the story first broke last year, sounded.  Perhaps he felt ashamed.  Though I doubt it.

Yet Trudeau will not be punished, the law does not provide for it.  The polls won't budge over the Holidays and people have not really paid attention to the issue.  Talk about getting off easy!  Still, Trudeau's ethical judgment (and that of his entourage and his cabinet have not met the smell test).  This particular event, though, having played out for so long, did little immediate damage to the Liberal brand.

It is understood that a Prime Minister cannot avoid close contact with the rich and powerful of this world.  But Mr. Trudeau relishes it.  He clearly enjoys going to Davos to meet with the business elites, to hang out with rock stars, to be famous for being famous.  But somehow, Trudeau and his team were very secretive about his vacation with the Aga Khan.  If not for the persistence of David Akin to find out where he was vacationing, Canadians might not have known.  Same goes with the cash-for-access financing cocktails with wealthy Chinese investors.  Or the Finance Minister's undisclosed European villas.  If the PMO was only interested in protecting the government's image as a servant of the middle class, the secrecy would be generalized and these contacts minimalised.  But when it comes to Trudeau's adventures with the rich and famous, the Liberals are picking and choosing what to tell Canadians.  And so far, the reasons not to tell Canadians were always related to ethical problems and potential conflict of interests.

This systematic failure of Justin Trudeau and his team to anticipate these conflict situations (potential, real or apparent) is not hurting the Liberals as much as it should have.  It certainly has not hurt them too much in the polls they even stole two ridings from the Conservatives in recent by-elections.  But these scandals are creating a sentiment about the Liberals, reinforced by years of governing arrogance and systemic entitlements.  The perception is setting.  A narrative can be built.  A case can be made.  It is now up to Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet Singh to do it.

Photo Credit: National Post

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.