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Gather 'round, friends, for I bear good tidings.  Last year at around this time, I made a bunch of predictions for what was coming in the year ahead.  And boy, was I right.

Okay, okay.  Maybe only some of it.  But who could have foreseen everything that happened this year in advance?

In the spirit of the season — to really take a hard look at myself, and how great I am, I mean — it seems like it's a good thing to go back and see what I thought last year, and then we can laugh at how things really turned out.

So let's do it.

You can find my predictions column right here, if you want to get all the way up to speed.  Otherwise, I'll just paraphrase my predictions.

First let's do the things I got right, so I can feel good about myself, then we'll look at the things I kinda-sorta got correct.  Then, we'll see what I completely nerfed on, and question whether I'm really qualified to sit atop the throne of Nostradamus.

The Good:

  • We did not get jetpacks this year, nor flying cars.  Nailed it!
  • I predicted electoral reform would be killed, the government would pay little price.  I think that's mostly right.  If they've paid any price for dropping this plan, it's that it's one of many broken promises.  I did also say Maryam Monsef, who led the file, would be shuffled out of cabinet, which I was half-right about.  She was shuffled into another department.  As the one doing the judging around here, I'm going to declare this a total victory.
  • If you're able to read this, it means I was right and there was no nuclear holocaust and we're not living in a radioactive wasteland.  Congrats, everyone!  There are still a couple weeks left in the year, but I'm confident we're going to make it this last bit without being atomized in a massive nuclear exchange.  The second half of this prediction was only applicable if I was wrong on the first half.
  • I figured there'd be some health story this year that would be reported everywhere but probably be wrong.  It hasn't been disproven yet, but here's a recent one on how drinking between three and seven cups of coffee will cut your chance of dying.  Well, cut your chance from dying from certain illnesses, it's not going to make you immortal.  Which almost exactly fits the mold of health stories that's reversed every few months.  And do you remember the miracle Zamboni treatment for MS?  Turns out that was total bullshit.  Starting to think health news isn't trustworthy.
  • Elizabeth May would stay on as leader of the Green Party, I said, for she is the party and the party is her.  She is eternal, and I was right.

The Iffy:

  • So, I said the 6/49 numbers for the third drawing of February would be 04-11-15-21-27-33.  The actual numbers were: 03-04-08-12-13-46, with the bonus number 26.  So, I guessed one number correctly, which means I wasn't completely wrong.  I'll say I'm very glad I wasn't right, though. I didn't play these numbers for the drawing, and I would have lost my mind if I'd been correct but not won the money.  Bullet: dodged.
  • Kevin O'Leary wouldn't be the leader of the Conservative Party, I thought, which was correct.  But I also said we'd miss him, which was wrong.  Turns out his absence has been wonderful.  Oh well, can't win them all!

The Yikes:

  • I said Kellie Leitch was going to win the Conservative leadership, and only bomb once she was in the big chair.  That was hilariously off-base.  She lost quite badly, and has since essentially disappeared from the political scene.  While I was completely wrong, I can't say I'm sorry about the outcome.  Silver linings!
  • Last year, I said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would get away with hosting private fundraisers with wealthy donors, and not pay a price.  I think I really whiffed this one.  The party instituted rules to curb these things.  While we can debate the strength and effectiveness of those rules, I think he paid a price.  It also set the party up to be vulnerable to all sorts of other scandals, big and small, this year.  This Liberal government has paid a real price for the appearance of how close they are to the wealthy and well-connected.  Which is good, I think.  But I was a touch too cynical to see that coming.
  • I also said Tom Mulcair would stay leader of the NDP.  That's an oopsie.  A big, big oopsie.  But I was right that Charlie Angus wouldn't be leader!  Still, way wrong.

Anyhow, that's it.  All things considered, not too shabby on the trivial stuff.  On the serious substantive side?  Well, not great.  There's always next year, though.  So, keep an eye on this space in the new year, where I'll try once again to guess lottery numbers months in advance, and if I'm lucky, make a joke or two that lands.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Wednesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was been found in violation of the Conflict of Interest Act for taking a private helicopter to an island owned by the Aga Khan, the head of the Nizari branch of the Ismaili faith.  A helicopter trip may not seem like a big deal, except for Trudeau's failure to recuse himself from meetings regarding a $15 million grant to the endowment fund of the Aga Khan's Ottawa-based think tank.  Outgoing Ethics Commissioner Mary Dawson confirmed the suspicions of many that "the vacations accepted by Mr. Trudeau or his family could reasonably have been seen to have been given influence Mr. Trudeau in his capacity as prime minister."

Trudeau was ready with an explanation, telling assembled reporters he was uhhhhh for ummmmming with the daaaaaaahhhh and would take the steps necessary to guuuuuuuh his errrrrrr as soon as possible.  Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Andrew Scheer went to town:

As did the commentariat:

  • Paul Wells, Maclean's: "Who will ever want to run for high office again, knowing the time-honoured option of an occasional tropical getaway to the sprawling demesne of a vaguely spiritual host who periodically petitions the federal government for grants-in-kind will forever be foreclosed?"
  • Tim Harper, Toronto Star: "This government wins byelections, and its approval ratings remain steady, and most Canadians seem to be giving the finger to those inside the Ottawa bubble who chronicle Liberal fumbles.  But this episode should burst well beyond the bubble."
  • The Globe & Mail editorial board: "Mr. Trudeau seems to believe his character is so unimpeachable that no one would dare conclude that an apparent conflict of interest on his part could in fact be real."
  • Mark Bonokoski, Sun Media: ". . . it has become increasingly obvious that the PM and his cabinet cohorts have a tin ear when it comes to issues involving ethics."

Too true.  Between this and Finance Minister Bill Morneau's failure to disclose his ownership of a villa in Provence, the highest echelon of the Liberal government has an unfortunate problem keeping their vacation arrangements above board.  Their "sense of entitlement" evokes memories of what turfed the last Liberal government.  When will they learn?

A #cdnpoli tweep known only as @kingcambie offered a solution:

 

Well said, Your Majesty.  I think you're on to something.

Canadians have bandied about the idea of annexing these West Indies islands (a self-governing British Overseas Territory) since 1917, making it either a province or a territory.  Maritime trade ties between the islands and Canada go back a century earlier than that.  Canadian companies own the islands' power company and hospitals, plus most of the banks and a number of hotels, resorts, and law firms.  The territory's premier, Rufus Ewing, said he was "not closing the door completely" to the idea when asked in 2014.  It's not out of the realm of possibility.

The appeal to the public is obvious: a tropical island vacation, accessible with a Canadian passport.  The previous Conservative government didn't see the benefit, shooting down MP Peter Goldring's 2014 attempt to open talks, with sources speaking of their concern that annexation might lead to "a flood of refugee applications."  But that just was their pessimism getting the better of them again.  For Trudeau's Liberals, what better way to remind Canadians of the "sunny ways" that propelled them to power than to provide unhindered access to one of the sunniest places on Earth?

But there's more. Only eight of the 40 islands that make up the Turks and Caicos are currently inhabited.  That's more than enough left for Trudeau and all 30 of his Cabinet ministers.  Each one could construct a satellite office for their respective department and work from there at will.  The island left over can host a time share for senators, or perhaps a Second Cup.

Don't you see?  With an entire island all to yourself, who needs an undisclosed villa?  Or someone else's island?  No longer will Cabinet ministers have any incentive to deceive the public about their vacation plans.  Since all of those islands will be Canadian soil, it'll be that much easier to travel there via official transports.  And since each one will have a Cabinet office, the public will have a much easier time finding out who else was there and why.

This would be the single greatest thing Trudeau could do to renew the interest of young Canadians in federal politics.  Can you just imagine the gusto with which he would announce the annexation?  "YOU get an island! YOU get an island! EVERYBODY GETS AN ISLAND!!!"

Let's not sit on our hands any further.  We can only handle so many more demands in Question Period for ministers to resign over their holidays.  The time to make the Turks and Caicos Canadian again is now. 

Written by Jess Morgan

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.