Is Denis Coderre in trouble?

A poll is showing that his main opponent, Projet Montreal's Valérie Plante, is now leading the Mayoral race by two points in voting intentions 39 to 37.  That is quite a change from the first poll, published in June, that gave Denis Coderre a 14-point lead over Plante, but the trends have been against him since.

Why is Coderre's campaign faltering?  Is it, as polling firm CROP's president Alain Giguère suggests, that the ongoing, multiple construction sites and the resulting congestion on Montreal roads has people concluding that it's time for change?  Perhaps.

But there is more to it.  For the past year, Coderre has been behaving like it was obvious he was going to win.  His style is abrasive to many, my way or the highway, and on many files, he has not exactly been actively listening to his citizens.  Worse, he called the Montreal police chief to complain that La Presse's columnist Patrick Lagacé was pestering him about a traffic ticket   which lead to an investigation that included monitoring the telephone activities of Lagacé.  Indeed, his relationships with the media have been acrimonious, with reports of intimidation tactics and threats to ensure strict control of information.  The net result is that over half of Montrealers describe Coderre as arrogant.

His campaign messaging has mostly been about keeping a steady hand at the wheel.  Coderre's strategy has been to boast about his long political experience and his connections with powerful people, may they be political or business leaders.

Yet, his ambitious projects have not inspired the city like he had hoped.  The infamous E formula race clogged the downtown core and Coderre won't reveal how many tickets were sold.  There is a sentiment of a chronic lack of transparency, culminating with Coderre removing the visitors' registry from City Hall, allowing his guests to come and go with no traces.

To top it all, many federalist voters are suspicious at the openly separatist slate running on Coderre's ticket, including former Bloc MP Réal Ménard, former PQ MNAs Scott McKay and Elsie Lefebvre, and Hadrien Parizeau, the grandson of former Premier Jacques Parizeau.

Meanwhile, Plante is running on freshness.  She surprised many 8 months ago when, casting herself as a "Happy Warrior", beat the odds and defeated her more experienced opponent for the leadership of Projet Montreal.  She's tapping into a new mood, into people looking for a different style of leadership.  She's young, smiling, energetic, and environmentally conscious while not being afraid to speak truth-to-power, with a no-nonsense way of looking at the different issues.  Projet Montreal is playing up her lack of experience as an asset, hoping she will become the city's first female mayor.  Her signature proposal, a new metro line dubbed the Pink Line, would open the first subway stations on the island since 1988.  Coderre's attacks on Plante's platform being unrealistic have fallen flat.

And more importantly, voters have no more patience with experienced politicians who are not delivering.  And voters are no longer afraid to jump into the unknown.  Quebec did it with Layton.  Alberta did it with Notley.  Canada did it with Trudeau.  The Americans did it with Trump.  France did it with Macron.  Montrealers might very well do it with Plante.