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Day: October 25, 2017

The by-election results are in, and not surprisingly, the Conservatives have retained Sturgeon River-Parkland, with Conservative candidate Dane Lloyd getting 77% of the vote.  Far behind were the Liberals (12%) and the NDP (8%).  The Greens, strangely, didn't run a candidate in Rona Ambrose's old seat, but the Christian Heritage Party did, scoring 3% vote share.

But the real game was in Lac-St-Jean, where the four major parties had hopes of positive results.  The seat was abandoned by former Conservative minister and Quebec lieutenant Denis Lebel, who became CEO of the Quebec Forest Industry Council.

In the end, it was a good night for Justin Trudeau, a terrible night for Andrew Scheer. a disappointing night for Martine Ouellet and a bad night for Jagmeet Singh.  Everything could change by the end of the week, but for now, that's what it is.

Polling expert Eric Grenier had the four parties more or less even in the starting blocks, with each party having more or less one quarter of the electorate as a potential universe.  The big four all had more than 10,000 votes in 2015.  At the end of the night, the Liberals won with 39%, the Conservatives finished second with 25%, the Bloc 3rd with 23% and the NDP ended with 12%.  The Green Party also tried its luck, but finished dead last with 1%.

Do the parties' performances give us a glimpse of what could be the next federal campaign in Quebec in 2019?

For the Conservatives, this is not good news.  They ran a capable candidate in Rémy Leclerc, a former municipal councillor in Roberval and Denis Lebel's right-hand man during four federal campaigns.  The Conservative Party also has deep roots in the region.  In the 80s, the region was painted in blue until the rise of the Bloc Québécois.

Lebel took over the constituency of Roberval-Lac-St-Jean from the hands of the Bloc in a 2007 by-election with 60% of the vote.  But while Lebel easily withstood the 2011 Orange Wave with 45%, the Liberals' rise in 2015 brought the Conservatives down to 33%.  The trend down continued in 2017.

For new Conservative leader Andrew Scheer, keeping the riding was a big test.  If Stephen Harper had a lot of critics in Quebec, he also had admirers.  Scheer has neither he is still rather unknown.  Scheer campaigned in the riding and spent time in the region this summer: the Lac Saint-Jean International swim race, the Alma Beer Festival, the Saint-Félicien Zoo, Val Jalbert, he went everywhere.  This defeat is a major blow for the Conservatives no matter how you parse the numbers, only one party lost a seat last night, one that it held for 10 years.  Some Quebec Conservative activists might regret choosing Andrew Scheer over Maxime Bernier.

Gisèle Dallaire was once again representing the New Democratic Party.  A psychologist, Dallaire gave Denis Lebel a run for his money in 2015.  Despite the receding Orange wave, Dallaire was less than five points behind.  Dallaire tried to present the by-election as a two-way race, but voters didn't buy it.

The NDP began this by-election without a permanent leader.  Once Jagmeet Singh took over, he had only 22 days to have an impact on this election.  His visit to the riding generated a lot of coverage and publicity.  Singh is a media darling.  Was there a Jagmeet Singh effect in Lac-St-Jean, observers are asking?  Did the NDP lose despite, or because, of the new NDP Leader?  While not totally fair, as the NDP problems pre-date his election as leader, the point remains that there are some very big challenges ahead in Quebec for Singh and his Quebec MPs.

The NDP, which holds the neighbouring riding of Jonquière, needed to be more competitive and demonstrate that the NDP is a permanent player in Quebec.  It didn't happen, and many pundits and analysts are now implying that the NDP will soon be irrelevant again in Quebec.

As for the Bloc Québécois, they went into this by-election with popular local union leader Marc Maltais.  The party held the riding for 13 years, from 1991 to 2004.  Its first Bloc MP?  A certain Lucien Bouchard!  This means that Lac-Saint-Jean is truly the cradle of the Bloc.

It must be remembered that, from the outset, Leader Martine Ouellet declared that she would not be a candidate.  Too far from home, she said.  The reality is that the Bloc is still struggling.  Bringing Lac-Saint-Jean back to the Bloc would have been hard, even if the BQ had tried to elect its leader.  And for Martine Ouellet, giving up her seat in the National Assembly (and the salary and resources that come with it) was a gamble that Bloc strategists deemed not worth the risk.  Still, the by-election is a missed opportunity, and it sends a very bad message: if even the leader of the Bloc was afraid to run in the old riding of Lucien Bouchard, how could the Bloc get it back?

For Justin Trudeau's Liberals, this might be a turning point.  They've had a terrible fall so far, losing control of their messaging, losing control of the agenda, losing touch with their departments and facing ethical problems.

To win, the PLC relied on a proven recipe: a popular local mayor, Richard Hébert, Mayor of Dolbeau-Mistassini.  He was preferred by Liberal activists to the former vice-chief of the Mashteuiatsh band council, Marjolaine Étienne.

The voters of Lac-Saint-Jean have never sent women or aboriginal people to Ottawa.  Marjolaine Étienne was therefore a perfect candidate for Justin Trudeau.  But the Liberal reflex was to choose a white man of a certain age, who would be more likely to win.

The Liberals paraded Justin Trudeau to every corner of the riding this summer.  The Liberal presessional caucus was held in Alma at the end of August.

The Liberal candidate was also able to boast about the government's investments in the region, which must have been a happy coincidence: $ 13 million to improve high-speed internet services and the cellular network covering Highway 155, which connects the Mauricie to Saguenay- Lac-Saint-Jean; a subsidy of $ 1.7 million for Trou de la Fée in Desbiens; a loan of 1 million to Nutrinor; and financial assistance of $350,000 to Adex Systems of Hébertville-Station.  In short, money flowed freely.

The Liberal Party of Canada clearly did everything it could to dislodge the Conservatives and supplant the NDP, and it worked.  Liberal strategists know that, by 2019, they will lose seats in the Atlantic and the Prairies.  They are also worried about Singh's attraction power in the 905.  To retain their majority, they will need to make gains in Quebec, the first target being NDP voters and NDP seats.

Winning at the expense of the Conservatives in Lac-Saint-Jean, a riding which the Liberals had not won since 1980, is sending a clear message: despite all the recent problems, Trudeaumania 2.0 is in Quebec to stay.

Photo Credit: CBC News

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.

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Finance Minister Bill Morneau sure seems to be having fun, doesn't he?

Hot off several weeks of turning reasonable and fairly mundane tax changes into an assault on moms and pops everywhere, the hyper-rich minister now finds himself in a series of ethical quandaries.

In an effort to dig himself out from under all of this, Morneau and the Liberal government are going to try and throw some money at the problem.  Maybe a few shiny loonies will get people's attention.

It's part of a pattern with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government that's being repeated so often, I'm starting to wonder if their whole plan is to repeatedly botch policy rollouts and give up.

First, Morneau tried to put through some tax reforms to prevent people from declaring themselves corporations and their children employees, allowing them to sprinkle their income around.  Morneau was then outmanoeuvred by a pack of rabid doctors and some TV entrepreneurs, so the government decided to fold.  As penance, they're going to cut taxes on small businesses.  Instead of closing loopholes, they're going to add more incentive to do slide through them.

Then, this week it was announced the government is going to increase the Canada Child Benefit earlier than expected, giving Morneau the chance to drone on once more about the middle class.

This is all after it came out Morneau had under his name a numbered corporation which owned a French villa he'd plum forgot about.  And of course there was that whole thing where he said he'd put his considerable assets in a blind trust, didn't, was found out, then promised to really do it.

This is all starting to feel like a familiar pattern, isn't it?  First a minister will come out announcing some policy plan or another.  The plan will be a bit fuzzy, and there'll be lots of talk of consultation.  Then there will be blow back, and people will start organizing against it.  The government will seem surprised anyone would have anything bad to say about their policy.  People will be more upset.  The government will back down.

This has happened to greater and lesser degrees to Heritage Minister Mélanie Joly, former democratic institutions minister Maryam Monsef, current Democratic Institutions Minister Karina Gould and Treasury Board President Scott Brison.

It was just two weeks ago I was writing about this very thing happening to Joly.  She was announcing a big Netflix spending promise, and somehow nobody thought about why there wasn't a specific announcement about spending in Quebec.

Monsef was tasked with the job of implementing some vague idea of electoral reform, but never given instructions as to what that should look like.  Instead she had to consult endlessly.

Brison and Gould are trying to sell an access to information bill that, according to the information commissioner, makes it even harder to access information.  But this, Brison and Gould have happily declared, is a win for transparency.

It keeps happening.  And when it does the same "middle class", "consulting Canadians" drivel falls out of the face of a minister until the problem doesn't go away.  So they give up.

There's one thing in common in all of this.  Each of those ministers is subordinate to one person, Justin Trudeau.  And it's his office, the Prime Minister's Office, that sets the direction of the government.

The reason these ministers keep falling on their faces isn't because they're rookies —though that probably doesn't help — it's because they're following the playbook set out for them.  The ministers have talking points and core messages and other sorts of PR jib-jab, and they stick to them no matter what.

And when it blows up, it blows up in the face of the minister.  But more and more around that cabinet table, Trudeau must be seeing soot-blackened faces, as his ministers are left holding their poorly made Acme bags.

Every time the government wants to advance some part of their "real change" agenda, they botch it.  It doesn't matter how well intentioned they are or how great their ideas might be if they keep blowing it.  We're well past the point of putting this at the feet of rookie ministers.  This is the fault of the PMO.

Each time a minister screws up, Trudeau is forced to use his charm and his guile to paper over his government's mistakes.  And each time he does, a little more of his political capital slips out the door.

Canadians will get past the smiling face and the sunny ways.  They'll get bored with backtracking.  They'll forget how much they disliked Conservative rule.  Once you use them enough, Trudeau's strengths will become tired liabilities.  An audience is only fooled so many times by shiny objects.

Unless the PMO starts learning from their mistakes, they're going to die by them.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.

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