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There are 124,000 card-carrying, fully signed up New Democrats in Canada.  That is a surprisingly healthy number, only a couple thousand less than what it was when the NDP elected Tom Mulcair to become Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition in 2012.

In 20 days, these 124,000 New Democrats will be able to cast their ballots for their next Leader.  Considering that when the race started, there was only 41,000 members left after the heart-breaking 2015 election results and the Edmonton Convention debacle that ensued, this number shows the resilience of the NDP.

The same is true in the public opinion polls.  Despite an overstretched, lacklustre, below the media radar leadership race; and despite a prolonged Trudeau honeymoon and continued swanning media coverage, the NDP has consistently been polling in the high-teens, even reaching the 20% bar twice during the dog days of summer.

Only twice has the NDP been better positioned in the polls when selecting a new Leader in 2012 of course, but also in 1989, the NDP had the support of 25% of Canadians when they choose Audrey McLaughlin to succeed Ed Broadbent.  When Jack Layton succeeded Alexa McDonough in 2003, the party polled at only 13%.

Things are not as bad as some pundits are saying the reports of the NDP's death are greatly exaggerated.  Still, lots of obstacles lay ahead.

Fundraising is a concern so far in the race, all NDP leadership candidates combined have raised less money than the top 4 Conservative leadership contenders took individually, namely Maxime Bernier, Kellie Leitch, Kevin O'Leary and Andrew Scheer.

The membership regional breakdown shows the NDP has some problems in Quebec.  With less than 5,000 members, a drop of 7,000 since the Mulcair days, the Quebec wing membership weight stands at only 4%.

This is surprising with 16 Quebec MPs and the second strongest federal political force in Quebec in the polls something New Democrats could only dream of for the first 50 years of the existence of the party.

The lack of membership strength shows that the NDP still does not have very deep roots in Quebec.  This is a challenge if the NDP wants a strong organization to maintain its Quebec beachhead in 2019, let alone increase the number of seats.

That said, all political parties in Quebec are having difficulty recruiting members and raising money.  The repercussions of the sponsorship scandal, the Gomery and Charbonneau commissions are being felt hard by all politicos: Quebec is the province where it is most difficult to involve people in active politics, at any level.

For NDP leadership candidates, the regional numbers are also indicative of their respective strength as they know how many members they have signed up.  Without a strong Quebec regional base, the chances of Guy Caron to win this contest are greatly diminished.  With over 10,000 members, Niki Ashton's home province of Manitoba claims the 4th biggest share of the membership.  But this number is partly inflated by the provincial NDP leadership race, a race that includes Ashton's dad and a race that has taken a nasty turn recently.

Meanwhile, Jagmeet Singh is boasting that he has signed up more than 47,000 new party members, mostly in the greater Toronto and Vancouver area, where Sikh organizers have been working their communities relentlessly.  That leaves 36,000 new members for the other camps, with Angus being seen as the best organized of the rest of the field.

Historically, a little over half the membership casts a ballot in a leadership race.  In 2012, Mulcair needed 33,000 votes to seal the deal.  If Singh's new members vote en masse, he will be difficult to beat.  If only half of them do so, Singh will need to convince at least half of the long-standing members to support him.  Recent polls of NDP members are showing that might be a much more difficult task.  Singh is trailing every other candidate on that front while Angus is largely ahead.

The name of the game is voter turnout.  Let's see who shows up.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.


Let's play a game for a second.

Imagine, if you will, the premier of Saskatchewan proposing a law that specifically targets religious minorities and regulates what they can wear if they want government services.  Pretend for a second, that this imaginary premier was forbidding, say, women to wear the niqab to get a health card.  Now, this premier has done so in the middle of a national leadership race for the NDP.

Pretty easy to see where that goes, yeah?

The candidates push and shove their way to be the first to denounce the racist westerner for not accepting that Canada is a multicultural place, where people of all races and religions are accepted.

This is all fiction, of course.  The premier of Saskatchewan is doing no such thing.  It's the premier of Quebec, Phillipe Coullard, who's government has proposed banning people wearing religious face coverings — read: Muslim women in a niqab — from receiving public services.

But that's not the only fiction in our little game.  The NDP candidates aren't fighting to be the most vocal in their denunciations.  Two of the candidates have gone so far to bend themselves in all sorts of knots to avoid denouncing it at all.

Meanwhile, Charlie Angus and Jagmeet Singh have both soundly rejected the bill, showing a bit of spine.

The cowardice of the other candidates hoping to woo support in Quebec by equivocating on the law is quite stunning.  Guy Caron said he doesn't care for the bill, but respects the right of Quebec's majority to dictate what minorities should wear.

Sorry, sorry. I'm paraphrasing.  What he actually said in a press release, according to HuffPost, was: "Quebec's different view of secularism from the rest of Canada is not a minority current, but a broad consensus among the province's political class…I am making it clear that, above all, an NDP leader must respect Quebec's national character."

The "national character" in this case Quebec's virulent secularism, which opposes all symbols of religion, unless they are giant crucifixes.  Those are fine.

And it's becoming increasingly clear that this "national character" also includes an ugly and violent strain of Islamophobia.  Just this week, the leader of a Quebec City mosque — where six men were shot and killed in a mass murder — had his car torched.  This followed the now familiar, and disgusting, tactic of vandals leaving a pig's head and blood on the mosque's front step.  That was in addition to a shredded Qur'an and the shit smeared on the front door of the place of worship.

Caron didn't do that.  But he's accepting of a law that by definition singles out a the same group of people who are so brutally harassed.

Niki Ashton is not much better.  Her initial response to Bill 62 stuck the same spineless balance.  "There is a consensus in Quebec's political leaders emerging on secularism, and the Canadian government should respect the will of Quebecers on this matter."

After being hammered for an obvious double standard, Ashton backtracked as best she could, saying in a series of tweets, "I will not compromise on rights, freedoms, & personal agency."  But she wouldn't outright say she opposed the bill, instead hiding behind the idea that because the final version of the bill hasn't been tabled, her campaign manager said she wouldn't comment on a "hypothetical."

Which is nonsense, because while the bill may or may not be finished, its intent is clear.  You either think it's a bad thing, or you don't.

It's surely coincidence that most of Quebecers' discomfort is toward non-Christian religious displays.

Quebec has played footsies with this kind of policy before.  Readers may remember the last provincial election, where the Parti Quebecois proposed a "charter of Quebec values."

The idea was roundly criticized at the time for, quite obviously, targeting minorities.  Many pundits have hung their hat on the idea the PQ lost that election over the charter, but it clearly does represent the values of many Quebecers.  I'm repeating myself a little bit here, but it's worth hammering home: If the charter didn't really represent the values of Quebecers, the Liberal government wouldn't feel the need to introduce their own version of it.

So Angus should be commended for his stance on the bill: The government shouldn't be legislating what clothes anyone wears are or aren't acceptable.  It's a simple concept that shouldn't be so hard to get behind.

But in many ways Singh's denunciation of Bill 62 is particularly noteworthy.

Singh has been told, over and over, how his turban and the public display of religious devotion that it represents, is a non-starter in this province, and he'll never be a viable leader of the party because of this.

Instead of readily condemning a bill that obviously targets minority groups, NDP leadership candidates are equivocating.  This should be easy, yet here we are.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of our publication.