For all the talk about whether or not Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario leader Patrick Brown will unseat Premier Kathleen Wynne and her Ontario Liberal Party come next election, there is another element to the equation being largely ignored. Most of the media seem to have dismissed Andrea Horwath and her Ontario New Democratic Party as an impossibility come next election, citing anemic poll numbers, yet for reasons outlined below this could be a foolish assumption.
Horwath is a seasoned politician — with two decades experience in public office — that can go toe to toe with either of the other two Ontario leaders, as she's proven at Queen's Park over the past several years. I'd go as far as to say she exudes more warmth than a stiff Brown or mealy-mouthed Wynne. But if pollsters are still to be given credence, despite all of their recent failures, then as of now she is not really in contention for premiership.
But there are upcoming events that could dramatically change the fortunes of all three leaders. First, Wynne's Liberals face a looming onslaught of negative press this fall when four former Liberal operatives face charges of bribery or mischief and breach of trust for either allegedly deleting emails related to the gas plant scandal or allegedly offering a quid pro quo to a would-be Liberal candidate to get him to step aside. The trial relating to the gas plant scandal could be especially damaging as it could reopen an old wound of the ruling party. Then there are possible unforeseen scandals that could befall the long-time-ruling party leading up to the election.
Although Wynne seems to have new life according to Innovative Research Group's latest poll, which shows Wynne's Liberals at 35 per cent to Brown's 39 per cent, more scandalous information is likely to leak from a party that's been in power for over fifteen years.
That recent poll also shows Horwath's NDP as a distant third at only 20 per cent support, but Horwath and the NDP could gain a lot of support if Wynne's Liberals continue to lose credibility with progressives. If the powerful unions and the left-wing media see no comeback victory for Wynne they may throw their weight behind Horwath in an attempt to avoid a Brown government.
When the election nears the Toronto Star et al. will stop playing nice with Brown. Although he's shown strong discipline in keeping his party from doing or saying anything controversial or remotely different from Wynne's Liberals, as the election nears, Brown and PCPO candidates will have to run on some semblance of a conservative platform to distinguish themselves from Wynne's Liberals. The media will likely harp on his past record and how he has done a one-eighty from his former self, rightfully questioning what exactly he stands for. The hit pieces will be merciless.
Brown, in hoping he will win by default over the electorate growing sick of the Liberals, is also alienating much of his base by veering left and mimicking Wynne, which could translate in many conservatives abstaining or casting protest votes for the Trillium Party of Ontario.
Wynne is already copying many of Horwath's policies, so if the most recent poll is just a blip and she remains at toxic levels many progressive voters could strategically vote orange seeing it as a viable alternative, punishing the Liberals for their scandals while still getting more socialist policies many Ontarians still seem to think our debt-ridden province can afford.
Another interesting stat from the most recent poll — again, for what little it's likely worth — was that Horwath has the best net favourable ratings at plus seventeen. Yet 44 per cent of the electorate doesn't know who she is, so if she can raise her profile over the next year, the all-important personality factor could help her outperform a stilted Brown.
Ultimately a lot of this comes down to hypotheticals, but that's politics for you. To underestimate the NDP has been proven foolish in the past. God forbid, another orange wave could be upon us.
Photo Credit: Toronto Star
Written by Graeme C. Gordon
