The election of Andrew Scheer is setting up the stage for the 2019 election, and the other parties are scrutinizing the new arrival, adjusting their tactics and strategies with less than 30 months to go before the 43rd election.
Justin Trudeau's Liberals were surprised by Scheer's election. The ruling Liberals were assuming Maxime Bernier was going to be their opponent, as did many observers. After all, Bernier was leading in key indicators such as fundraising and polling numbers, and the previous presumed front runner Kevin O'Leary had withdrawn in his favour.
Liberal hacks, back in their Ottawa war room, were blasting out emails denouncing Bernier's policies, framing him as a right-wing extremist, an enemy of farmers and reminding all who would pay attention about his separatist past. A few Liberal operatives even made the trek to Etobicoke to spin and spread the Liberal message to media and observers.
They had to change their tune at the last hour, when Scheer came back from behind to win on the 13th and final ballot. So the Liberal target changed and the tactics will evolve, but the strategy will remain the same: paint the new Tory Leader as scary and dangerous, hoping that another fear campaign will yield another victory for the Liberal Party of Canada.
"He won because of the social conservative wing of the party so he will be under pressure to reopen those debates," MP Pablo Rodriguez said. "He's somebody who wants to be in charge of the thought police," MP Adam Vaughan added. They'll accuse him of wanting to turn the clock back on progress, of being Stephen Harper with a smile.
But that smile might actually work for the new Conservative Leader. It will blunt the attacks.
Scheer is a young, affable, sociable family man. He has a good sense of humour, which he showcased on Saturday, giving the funniest speech at the Press Gallery Dinner. And come on, who in Ottawa is really afraid of Andrew Scheer?
Many New Democrats are. As they were of Stephen Harper. The temptation will be strong to focus on the Conservative Leader as the real enemy, in effect playing the Liberal hand for them.
When New Democrats were pondering when to hold the leadership race to replace Thomas Mulcair, an argument kept coming back again and again: let's wait for the Conservatives to elect their new Leader, this will give us a chance to assess their choice and to act accordingly.
At the time, I thought this was ill-advised. In my opinion, our members will likely not vote for an NDP candidate based on the Conservative leader. Furthermore, allowing the Conservative Party to choose its new Leader before the NDP would simply set the stage for the classic Blue-Red confrontation, leaving the NDP as the leaderless third wheel while the narrative would be set as Trudeau facing the new Tory Strawman.
So what now?
First, the NDP can breathe a little more comfortably in Quebec and so can the Bloc Québécois. Had the Tories picked Maxime Bernier, New Democrats would have been really hard pressed to keep their 16 seats. The Bloc would have had a hard time to re-emerge. The main opposition to Trudeau in Quebec would have been Maxime Bernier's Conservatives. With Bernier facing Trudeau and Martine Ouellet as a wild card, the NDP would have had very little space to grow. This is good news for the four non-Quebecers in the leadership race, who won't face that immense challenge with Scheer, who is basically unknown in Quebec. Paradoxically, it is also good news for Guy Caron: had Bernier won, many New Democrats would have been tempted to give up on the Quebec candidate and take the geographical advantage of having the sole non-Quebecer running for Prime Minister.
Speaking of geography, Scheer hails from Saskatchewan. Niki Ashton, from Manitoba, is the only prairie candidate in the NDP leadership race. This shouldn't have a major impact on her chances. But Scheer's election does give her a big contrast card to play: against Trudeau and Scheer, she would be the sole woman to be realistically competing for Prime Ministership. And, as Trudeau himself said, "there is something very special about imagining a female prime minister. I think it's long overdue. I just don't think we have to wait that long." Move along, Kim Campbell, Niki Ashton can fill the Prime Minister's dreams and his shoes!
Had the Tories gone for Lisa Raitt or Kellie Leitch, that card wouldn't be there. But frankly, there was slim chance of that happening.
But Ashton is not the only one who can play a big contrast card. Jagmeet Singh can, too. Singh is the only non-white still standing who can aspire to become Prime Minister. Deepak Obhrai and Michael Chong could have been that guy. But frankly, there was slim chance of that happening.
Still, New Democrats love to break barriers. They did it in the past when they elected Audrey McLaughlin to succeed Ed Broadbent, over former BC Premier Dave Barrett. McLaughlin became the first female to lead a federal political party in the House of Commons. For that leap, the NDP was rewarded with 9 seats in 1993 still, 7 better than Kim Campbell, the first female Prime Minister of Canada.
What about Peter Julian and Charlie Angus? They are no further ahead because of the arrival of Andrew Scheer. The truth is, they are probably no further behind either. Sadly, for New Democrats, they wasted a full year waiting for a leadership race outcome that will probably have little to no impact on their own choice in leader.
Photo Credit: CBC News
