The New Democratic Party of Quebec is being reborn from its ashes. Very slowly, but surely maybe, the work begun by activists following the Orange wave of 2011 continues to inch forward.
As a result of that historic election, some wanted to take advantage of the popularity of the NDP brand in Quebec to resurrect the provincial party. There was much debate amongst New Democrats about it.
A reminder; the Quebec NDP was first founded in 1963, following the creation of the New Democratic Party of Canada. Several renowned Quebecers were on board: Robert Cliche, Gérard Picard, Fernand Daoust, Charles Taylor and many others. The party was mostly active as a section of the federal party. Still, the Quebec NDP ran a handful of candidates, on and off, in the Seventies. It was not until the mid-80s that New Democrats attempted a real breakthrough in Quebec.
At the time, not unlike today, New Democrats saw a political vacuum in Quebec, with many orphaned voters, left behind by both the PQ and PLQ. In 1985, with former Ontario MP Jean-Paul Harney as leader, the NDP ran 90 candidates in the Quebec election. The NDP received a disappointing 2.42% of the vote (which remains, to this day, a high mark!)
But the activists persisted and continued to believe. Buoyed by the popularity of federal leader Ed Broadbent and by the division that consumed the PQ at the time, the Quebec NDP was polling reasonably well, at around 15%, with a peak of 22% in October 1987.
Despite promising polls, the federal NDP failed to breakthrough in Quebec in the 1988 election. The Quebec campaign was marked by divisions in the ranks, notably about the issue of language. Before the 1989 provincial election, the Quebec wing broke off from the federal party. Subsequently, the party struggled, changed its name in 1995 to become the Party of Democratic Socialism. The PDS joined the coalition of the Union des Forces Progressistes in 2002, along with the Rally for the Progressive Alternative and the Communist Party. The UFP merged in 2006 with Option Citoyenne to create Québec Solidaire. Québec Solidaire is therefore the great-great-great-grandson of the NDP!
The current situation does not satisfy everyone and many New Democrats want to be back on the provincial scene in time for the 2018 Quebec election.
The interim leader of the Quebec NDP, Pierre Ducasse, did a lot of the work upstream, but recently announced that while the party will run candidates, he will not lead them in the campaign. The party held a general assembly on April 30th to elect a new executive. Among them, two former federal MPs: Denis Blanchette as President and Djaouida Sellah as vice-president.
Why revive the party, you may ask? The theory is that there is a significant number of orphaned voters who would like to vote for a progressive federalist party. Voters too progressive to continue voting for the Liberal Party. Voters who have zero interest in supporting the right-wing CAQ. Voters for whom separation is not relevant or that is no longer topical and which prevents Quebec from moving forward. Exit the PQ, bye bye National Option. That leaves Québec Solidaire. QS has recently been flirting with the PQ and negotiated a secret pact on Quebec's independence with other separatist parties. QS has also expressed its willingness to become the unifying force of Quebec's independentists. This all makes Québec Solidaire less attractive. QED: Quebec needs the New Democratic Party.
But it's not all that simple. After the 2011 Orange wave, a majority of Quebecers were saying they were interested in voting for a then non-existent Quebec NDP. Where are we today? On the federal scene in Quebec, the NDP is the second political force behind Justin Trudeau's Liberals, with 16 MPs. However, looking at the example of the Conservative Party of Quebec, there is no guarantee that the federal votes will automatically transfer to the provincial sister party.
It is likely that a Quebec NDP could indeed both pull votes away from the progressive parties and from the Liberal Party. But how many? Launching a new party is quite a challenge. You need to build your base and local associations. You must find not only the candidates (and a leader!), but also the people who will surround them. You need to find the funds to conduct a credible campaign, or even a pre-campaign, so that voters know that the party exists elsewhere than on the ballot. And, quite importantly, you have to convince voters that the arrival of another party will not actually help the Liberal Party by splitting the vote.
Finally, you need oxygen. And media sunlight. A lot of sunlight.
And, at the moment, the political landscape is quite full and it will be difficult for the Quebec NDP to get much sunlight. On the left side of the spectrum, it is clear that Québec Solidaire is on a roll. The kind of momentum that allows the Solidaires to say no unequivocally to the sovereignist convergence of PQ Leader Jean-François Lisée. For the leader of the Yes party, it's quite the slap in the face. For QS, it is water at the mill, wind in the sails, in short, momentum.
And this momentum has three letters: GND.
The arrival of former controversial student leader Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois as spokesman for Québec Solidaire gave a good bump to the party in the polls. While the party remains largely under 20%, it has almost doubled its support from the last election, since Nadeau-Dubois' arrival. As soon as his intentions were announced in March, more than 5,000 new members joined the party in a few days. Another wave followed after his election as co-spokesperson the Quebec Solidarity Congress. This enthusiasm among the activists was never aroused by the serene leadership of Françoise David.
Whether the media likes or dislikes GND, no matter, they talk about him abundantly. Nadeau-Dubois is young, he is photogenic, he makes controversial statements, sparking debates and controversy. Great clickbait material! GND's media presence is therefore disproportionate for the "leader" of a 4th party at the National Assembly. In fact, according to Influence Communications, Québec Solidaire was the party with the greatest media exposure last week. That's saying a lot.
The degree of hatred and love that Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois generates is spectacular. Those who denigrate him do with with exaggerations and red-baiting insults. This, of course, only motivates GND's supporters. Just like when Sun TV raged against Justin Trudeau. Or like when the big American mainstream media cheerfully mocked Donald Trump.
So who in the NDP world could compete with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois? Let's exclude the current federal MPs from the outset. There is no upside for them to give up their job and their advantages for such a risky adventure. Also, several of them, including Mulcair's Quebec Lieutenant Alexandre Boulerice, are quite close to Québec Solidaire and do not necessarily see the arrival of a provincial NDP as a positive development. As well, several federal NDP activists are already in the camp of Quebec Solidaire at the provincial level, particularly in Montreal. Furthermore, a poor performance by a Quebec NDP could harm the federal party and their chances of reelection. And, in all likelihood, there would probably be irreconcilable policy differences, notably on energy issues.
Many former MPs however, are looking for a new political project. Among them, the name of Raymond Côté, former member for Beauport-Limoilou, is the one that emerges most often. A very friendly guy, Côté does not have the notoriety of Nadeau-Dubois. This notoriety will go up a notch when he makes his entry in the National Assembly, after being elected Monday in the Gouin by-election. And no matter who becomes leader of the brand new Quebec NDP, the media will not give him or her the same oxygen at the outset as they did with Nadeau-Dubois. Without oxygen, it is difficult to survive. Or to even be born.
Photo Credit: Montreal Gazette
