The Quebec Liberal government tabled its budget last week and it quickly became evident that it was a political masterpiece in communications and cynicism. After three long years of cuts and austerity, the Quebec government is back! There is still one budget to go before the 2018 election, but clearly, the Quebec Liberals have turned the pre-election corner. Couillard's plan rests partly on economic growth, which has turned out as it was projected in 2014. If growth remains stable, expect even more goodies in the next budget, a few months before the next election.
But let's be crystal clear: If the PLQ now has surpluses and can reinvest and sell this budget as the "return of hope", it is only because of major previous cuts to public services when they took hope away. One has to admire the planning that went into it, looking at the election cycle, to cut deeply first in order to be able to build up a chest of pre-election goodies.
Coming less than a week after the stationary exercise bike that was the Federal Liberal's budget, the timing couldn't have been better. The contrast between the two budgets is certainly helping Philippe Couillard and his government.
While Justin Trudeau's government has lost control of the deficit with very little to show for it in terms of jobs, actual infrastructure projects, help for middle class families or increases in support for the front-line services they rely on, the Quebec government is increasing social investments, especially in health and education; implementing tax cuts and getting rid of some user fees while balancing the books.
Of course, this is only possible because Quebec's public services have been starved for the past three years. Premier Couillard likes to say that the Liberals "literally saved Quebec", ignoring of course that it was the Liberals who were drowning the people in the first place.
By gutting the capacity of the state to deliver services and help people, the Quebec Liberals have simply set the stage to implement its greater vision, one where the private sector takes more and more room. One key example is the 2.2 billion dollars Quebec will invest in the Caisse de Dépôt's Réseau Électrique Métropolitain. The REM, as it is known, is a 67-kilometre electric, driverless train system that will link Montreal's airport and train station to the north and south shore. Instead of investing that money in the four underfunded public transit agencies already in place (count them four: the STM, AMT, STL and RTL), the government is going all-in with this P3 project.
Yet, while cynical, the plan is being executed quite well. Will it be enough for Quebec voters to forget all the major problems, scandals and mismanagement? The aftermath of the Charbonneau commission on corruption? The major breakdowns in the health care system under the chaotic performance of Health Minister Gaétan Barette? The Minister of Education's ejectable seat, with five different ministers since the last election? The increased fees for childcare despite the previous election's rhetoric? The completely disorganized mess during the biggest snow storm of the year that left hundreds stranded all night on Highway 13? The answer is possibly.
Because meanwhile, facing Couillard's Liberals, is a divided opposition. The right-wing Coalition Avenir Québec is not lifting off the ground: even its Leader François Legault admits that the party's organisation is lagging. At this point, Legault is mostly putting his hopes on people wanting change and being (slightly) more popular than Lisée to ride a wave to power.
Meanwhile, the separatists are divided amongst three camps. While Jean-François Lisée trumpets that the Parti Québécois is still the Admiral Ship of the Soverignty Fleet, the PQ is taking hits from the surrounding flotilla. Starboard, it is being shelled by the radical Option Nationale, because of Lisée's decision to postpone a referendum until after 2022. Port side, the PQ is being torpedoed by the leftist Quebec Solidaire and the arrival of media darling Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, taking such a hit that the PQ won't even run against QS' new star recruit. To complicate matters, there is the possibility of a reborn Quebec NDP running candidates in 2018.
Under these circumstances, if an election had been held before the tabling of the budget, chances are Couillard would have formed another government, albeit probably a minority. Things are looking even better for him now.
Photo Credit: Huffington Post
