Barring a major screwup by the PC Party of Ontario between now and Sept. 1st, all indicators point to the PCPO easily wresting this longtime stronghold from the Liberal fold. The real story, though, is not who wins the byelection but who learns the right lessons from it. Before we get ahead of ourselves, however, let's review the evidence pointing to a Patrick Brown breakthrough in the subway-starved suburbs.
Fortune Favours The Bland
The PCPO navigates best in calm waters, and this byelection has been smooth sailing indeed.
I was genuinely nervous that campaign manager Doug Ford would let fly with one of his signature quips, but party officials have done a masterful job of enforcing the cone of silence.
Fears that loose lips would sink the party's Scarborough ship are definitely well founded, given that the party was blown off course some months back as a result of Ottawa-area MPP Jack McLaren's off-colour comments. That tempest forced Brown to deal with weeks of bad media, and while the situation was eventually dealt with it did highlight the party's main weakness- that their more aggressive members, spoiling for a fight, might mutiny against the leader's strict discipline.
The Liberals have also been relatively quiet, choosing not to fire any major salvoes Brown's way. Their candidate, Piragal Thiru, has taken the safe tack of promising that as MPP he will fight for "continued investments" and staying away from attacking his main rivals.
You'd think the Liberals would at least make the usual fuss about PC Party candidate Raymond Cho not resigning his seat on Toronto City Council, as they did when Patrick Brown remained a CPC MP while running for leader.
The Tories have also kept an even keel, leaving the NDP to file petitions over botched election calls and level attacks over lobbyist loopholes. While the New Democrats are distracted, candidate Cho has been relying on his name recognition and the PCPO's focus on rising hydro bills.
The Doctors Are Out
Brown's operatives haven't been idle, however. They've shown they can effectively fight and win a proxy war with Wynne's government.
I've chided Brown in the past for not going all out to get Ontario's doctors onside, but that's exactly what he did to defeat the agreement concocted by the government and the OMA leadership over doctor's fees. This was the ball Brown needed to keep his eye on. He showed discretion and good use of his resources by letting the doctors be the public face of their own campaign.
When the government blamed the OMA for being disorganized, Brown wisely turned the tables and had his party attack Health Minister Dr. Eric Hoskins for his own high salary. It's a black eye for the government. And in such a quiet political season, their failure to come away with a deal will hurt them at the ballot box even though the by-election and the fee fight have a few degrees of separation from one another.
Some voters may not understand the particulars of the billing agreement, but competence and organization do matter when choosing who to vote and the Wynne Liberals are definitely going through a disorganized spell.
A Long Reach
Scarborough Rouge River also serves as a test of Brown's bona fides amongst Ontario's minority groups. The fact that this is one of the most diverse ridings in the province, if not the country, means you can't just rely on poll numbers and endorsements from those outside the community if you want to know who's going to win.
So I took a trip down to the campaign office and I saw something there I'd never seen on any PCPO campaign in a riding of this nature local activists and members leading the charge.
I've spent my share of time in ridings where party staff who didn't speak the language shopped talking points to voters who nodded politely and disappeared. I was happy to be on sign duty. It was more important that voters speak to those who they knew already, or felt some kind of kinship with.
More importantly, it speaks to a shift away from the micromanage-y, one-size fits all style of past by-elections that left more than a few local members miffed. That, combined with the work Brown did during his leadership run laying the foundations, suggests the party has learned a few important lessons
So Where Do We Go From Here?
The PCs are favoured to win the battle, but what about the war?
As I've written previously, Wynne has played the wounded gazelle gambit many a time. She'll wait for her opponents to relax their guard- and then pummel them mercilessly. She still has a vacant spot in Ottawa Vanier to fill, which is unlikely to be won by anyone other than the Liberals even on their worst day.
And she knows how, in the wake of the PCPO's latest byelection victory in Whitby-Oshawa, the party used that momentum to push their iffy revenue-neutral carbon pricing scheme on their unsuspecting members.
The base was too busy celebrating their victory to complain as much as they otherwise would. Will the PC bosses try the same trick twice and use the showing in Scarborough to push ahead against those who are resistant to change?
And will they buy into the media hype around Wynne being down for the count this time?
I would advise everyone involved, win or lose, to mark this byelection as one more point on the trendline and remember: Never, ever, count a Liberal out.
Written by Josh Lieblein
