My fellow Ontarians, I think I speak for all of us when I say the current American election is a horrifying and fascinating disaster. But is it just me or does the campaign to elect the 45th President of the United States feel kind of….familiar? Do you get the same sense that I do that Kathleen Wynne and Hillary Clinton have been comparing notes?
The Premier of Ontario and the Democratic nominee have more than circumstantial connections such as rock-bottom approval ratings and an email deletion scandal in common. They seem to be fans of one another. Clinton took time out to praise Wynne after the latter won her majority, and Wynne offered up a bluntly negative appraisal of The Donald during a recent trip to Washington. Both women inspire searing and deeply personal hatred in their conservative opponents. Both are well practiced at turning that hatred back against their critics.
Clinton's elimination of Bernie Sanders from contention recalls the numerous times Wynne has quenched the NDP's fire. And Hillary would no doubt approve of Wynne's reliance on the Working Families Coalition- effectively Canada's only SuperPAC- to crush her conservative enemies. If Wynne is Clinton's Canadian counterpart, then Donald Trump's parallel north of the 49th parallel is obvious- the recently deceased Rob Ford. Trump's hair might keep him from wearing one, but even so he managed to tip his hat to the infamous ex mayor of Toronto when he told a West Virginia audience that he was going to stop the gravy train. Circumstances prevented Ford and Wynne from facing off against one another directly. They sniped at each other from time to time, but there were on two different levels of government.
This election down south could give us an idea of how that fantasy matchup would have played out and offers up some clues for what we might expect from Ontario's provincial parties going forward. Wynne won what appeared to be at the time an unlikely majority by offering the voters sunshine and rainbows and offering her PCPO and NDP opponents a healthy dose of contempt. She called them out for trying to appeal to a centre that wasn't interested and picked up disaffected voters from both camps. Trudeau's supremely confident federal effort the following year built on that strategy to great effect.
Now with her big-bank-friendly pick of Tim Kaine as running mate, Clinton is showing distinctly Liberal confidence in her election bid despite polls saying otherwise.
If Trump's characterization of her as Crooked Hillary Clinton is bothering her, you couldn't tell just by looking. Her negatives aren't dampening her positivity. I'd go so far as to say that she's employing the same made-in-Ontario haters gonna hate approach Wynne and Trudeau used. If it works against Trump, progressives worldwide will be looking to follow Canada's lead….and conservatives will be crying, "Woe, Canada!"
But what if Trump actually pulls it off?
Remember that Ford decisively crushed Liberal establishment candidate George Smitherman, and may have beaten Wynne's eventual successful pick of John Tory four years later if his health had not taken a turn for the worse.
Similarly, Trump seems to have shrugged off the pounding the MSM gave him during the Republican National Convention. Revelations of his deep ties to the Russians haven't slowed him either.
Ford's ace in the hole was always that he could take whatever the establishment threw at him and keep on going- though his lifestyle choices did impact his stamina. The teetotaling Donald Trump won't have that problem. So if he does beat Clinton, Wynne will lose a key ally and her weakness will be exposed.
The question would then become whether Patrick Brown and the PC Party of Ontario will actually follow Trump's lead and take the opportunity they've been offered. The PCPO braintrust are no fans of Trump and his populism. They've committed to playing it safe so far, endorsing what they'd like you to believe is a revenue neutral carbon pricing.
They seem to think that "We're not the Liberals" will actually work this time around. Yet another bid to pick up centrist voters by benching the party's more radical elements seems to be in the cards. The restive and elusive Ford Nation may have gone into hiding, but a Trump victory could bring them out of the woodwork.
And if there's anything the PCPO brass hates more than being out of power, it's having to put down a Trump-style populist revolution. But they also can't afford to lose another election.
One thing's for sure. When Canadians gaze into the abyss that is US politics- the abyss gazes back also.
Photo Credit: Toronto Sun
Written by Josh Lieblein
